Oregon at Washington College Football ATS Pick – 10-14

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oregon at washington cfb ats pick
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The Washington Huskies will host Oregon this week in one of the marquee college football matchups on this weeks card. The Huskies are -3 point favorites at wagerweb and betonline with a total of 67.

As you look below at the list of head to head meetings between these two programs going back to you’ll find every result imaginable. Close games, blowouts, each team winning. The last 4 years have seen close game with Washington winning last year and Oregon winning the three previous.

Head to Head Meetings

11/12/2022  Washington               37  +12.0  at Oregon                   34
11/ 6/2021  Oregon                   26  - 7.0  at Washington               16
10/19/2019  Oregon                   35  - 3.0  at Washington               31
10/13/2018  Washington               27  - 3.5  at Oregon                   30
11/ 4/2017  Oregon                    3  +16.5  at Washington               38
10/ 8/2016  Washington               70  -10.0  at Oregon                   21
10/17/2015  Oregon                   26  + 3.0  at Washington               20
10/18/2014  Washington               20  +20.5  at Oregon                   45
10/12/2013  Oregon                   45  -13.5  at Washington               24
10/ 6/2012  Washington               21  +24.0  at Oregon                   52
11/ 5/2011  Oregon                   34  -16.5  at Washington               17
11/ 6/2010  Washington               16  +35.5  at Oregon                   53
10/24/2009  Oregon                   43  -10.0  at Washington               19
 8/30/2008  Washington               10  +14.0  at Oregon                   44
10/20/2007  Oregon                   55  -10.0  at Washington               34
11/ 4/2006  Washington               14  +13.0  at Oregon                   34
10/15/2005  Washington               21  +16.0  at Oregon                   45
10/30/2004  Washington                6  +19.0  at Oregon                   31
11/ 1/2003  Oregon                   10  + 2.0  at Washington               42
11/16/2002  Washington               42  + 8.0  at Oregon                   14
 9/30/2000  Washington               16  + 3.0  at Oregon                   23
10/ 2/1999  Oregon                   20  + 2.5  at Washington               34
11/ 7/1998  Washington               22  + 6.5  at Oregon                   27
11/ 8/1997  Oregon                   31  +21.0  at Washington               28
10/26/1996  Washington               33  - 6.0  at Oregon                   14
11/ 4/1995  Oregon                   24  + 3.5  at Washington               22
10/22/1994  Washington               20  - 8.0  at Oregon                   31
10/23/1993  Oregon                    6  +12.5  at Washington               21
10/17/1992  Washington               24  -16.5  at Oregon                    3
10/26/1991  Oregon                    7  +31.5  at Washington               29
10/13/1990  Oregon                   17  + 5.0  at Washington               38
  
   average outcome:
     Oregon                  28.5  Washington              26.2
     margin =  -2.29
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Oregon                  27.6  Washington              31.2
     margin =   3.65
  
   average result when the home team is Washington             
     Oregon                  25.5  Washington              27.5
     margin =   2.07
  
   average result when the home team is Oregon                 
     Washington              24.9  Oregon                  31.3
     margin =   6.38
  
    31.82 % of games went Over
    30.00 % went Over at Washington             
    (since        1998 )
  
   average total points per game =  54.68
   time-weighted average total   =  58.85
  
   the home team covered  48.39 % of the time
   the road team covered  51.61 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.03
  
   the favorite  covered  70.97 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  29.03 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.35
  
   the favorite won SU    77.42 % of the time
  
   Oregon                  covered  64.52 % of the time
   Washington              covered  35.48 % of the time
  
   Washington              covered  33.33 % of the time at home
   Washington              covered  55.56 % of the time as home favorites

Both of these teams have won the majority of their games by large margins. Washington blew out Boise St, Tulsa, Michigan State and Cal and met some resistance their last time out getting by Arizona 31-24.

Oregon blew out Portland State, Hawaii, Colorado and Stanford while needing a 20 point 4th quarter to overcome Texas Tech back in week 2, 38-30.

Here’s a quick little chart with a couple of key stats and a prediction.

yppoff yppdef ydsperRA pred
Oregon 11.6 20.7 3.2 28
Washington 12.4 19.8 0.9 24

 

Our Pick

That chart simply gives a quick snapshot of the two teams by looking at their yards per point numbers, their yards per rush attempt and the score prediction from our model.

It’s so important to note that while those numbers are fantastic, you have to look at how they were accomplished. The opposition hasn’t been the strongest for these teams week to week.

That said, Oregon’s 3.2 yards per rush attempt leads the nation. Weak opposition aside, that number is worth paying attention to.

This should be a highly entertaining game. It would seem like going over the total of 67 is a no brainer but you can see from the score prediction above that our model says otherwise. So we’ll steer clear of the total.

Instead we’ll side with the underdog Ducks here. In what figures to be a game that’s up for grabs as w ehead into the 4th quarter, getting points is where we want to be.

Oregon +3

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