Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Week 6 NFL Pick

broncos vs. chiefs pick
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The defending champion Chiefs are rolling and in a Thursday night AFC West affair play host to a Broncos’ team that is sinking fast.

Not surprisingly, the Chiefs are a huge betting favorite posted at -10.5 with the total sitting at 49. As of Tuesday morning, there has been even money wagered on this game, as the line has not moved.

The Broncos followed their first win of the season with a bad loss in their last game where they were at home and fell to the one-win Jets 31-21. They failed to cover the spread as a 2.5-point favorite and on the season are 0-4-1 ATS.

The Chiefs were on the road in their last game and won their fourth in a row with a 27-20 win over the Minnesota Vikings. KC covered as a 3.5-point favorite and they have covered the spread in three of their last four games.

These teams met last season in Denver with the Chiefs beating the Broncos 34-28.

The D has Been the Issue

While Russell Wilson and new head coach Sean Peyton have taken most of the heat for the Broncos 1-4 start the defense is the main issue. That unit ranks dead last in the league giving up an average of 36.2 ppg.

Ok, so the defense gave up 70 points in the bad loss to the Miami Dolphins. However, in their last two games they have given up 31 points and in the loss to the Jets were facing a team that only ranks 24th in the league in scoring.

In the loss to New York the Broncos had three turnovers, and forced two, was outgained 407 yards to 308 yards, and they gave up 234 rushing yards. Wilson passed for 196 yards with two TD and no INT, Jaleel McLaughlin led the way with 68 rushing yards, and RB Samaje Perine led the team with 73 receiving yards.

Wilson (1,210 yards 11 TD 2 INT) has not been that bad but has not come through with the big play and only ranks 22nd in the NFL in QBR.

Wilson and the offense will be facing a Kansas City defense that ranks 13th in the league against the run and 11th against the pass.

Little Worrisome for the Champs 

Yeah, the Chiefs have won four in a row but they only have one game on the season facing a team over .500. On top of that their last two games were close against the Vikings and Jets, who have combined for three wins.  

In the 27-20 win over the Vikings in their last game they only outgained Minnesota by four yards and only rushed for 67 yards. Patrick Mahomes passed for 281 yards with two TD and was not picked, Travis Kelce led the way with 67 receiving yards, and Isiah Pacheco rushed for 55 yards on 16 carries with a TD.

While the Chiefs do not have a big-name RB or WR they still rank seventh in the league in passing yards per game and 12th in rushing yards per game.

Mahomes (1,287 yards 10 TD 4 INT) ranks fourth in the NFL in QBR. While he has not put-up huge numbers this season, he has been efficient and has had time, as he has only been sacked four times in five games.

Star TE Kelse (222 yards 3 TD), like Mahomes, has not put up the numbers we are used to seeing but leads the team in receiving yards. He is banged up but played in the last game and should go against the Broncos.

KC will be up against a struggling Denver D that ranks dead last in the league, overall, dead last in run defense, and 29th in pass defense.

Betting Trends

On the season the Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS.

This season the Broncos have an Over record of 4-1.

In four of the last five games between these division rivals the total has gone Over four times.

Our Pick – Chiefs -10.5

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