Memphis Grizzlies (37-36 34-38-1 ATS) at Golden State Warriors (39-34 39-37-35 ATS)
In the last play-in game where the winner will get the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs the Warrior host the Grizzlies. This big game can be seen on national TV on ESPN.
The Grizzlies beat the San Antonio Spurs in their first play in game 100-96 covering the spread as a 3.5-point favorite. Memphis lost two of three games facing the Warriors this season including losing to them 113-101 on the road in their last game of the regular season.
The Warriors put up a fight in their first play-in game losing to the Lakers 103-100 where they covered as a 6.5-point underdog. The loss snapped their six-game winning streak.
The Warriors have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 home games facing the Grizzles.
Great D Does the Trick
In their 100-96 win over the Spurs in the play-in game the Grizzlies won with great defense holding San Antonio to a FG% of 35.1% while they shot 44.4%. In the win Dillon Brooks and Ja Morant combined for 44 points and Jonas Valanciunas was a monster on the glass with 23 boards to go with 23 points.
In their season finale loss to the Warriors the Griz allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% while they shot 43.5% and struggled from deep missing 19 of their 25 3-pointers (24%).
In the loss to Golden State Valanciunas (17.1 ppg 12.5 rpg) was big going for 29 points on 80% shooting and had 16 boards. Morant (19.1 ppg) looks to atone from a subpar performance where he scored 16 points on 33.3% shooting missing five of his six 3-pointers.
Valanciunas has averaged 24 ppg and 15.8 rpg over his last four games.
Memphis has to keep the scorers for the Warriors in check, as in the first loss to them this season they allowed Andrew Wiggins to go for 40 points and in the season finale loss allowed Steph Curry to drop 46 points.
On the season Memphis is 20-16 on the road.
Can’t Hold On
In their 103-100 loss to the Lakers in their last game the Warriors could not hold on, as they had a 13-point halftime lead and were up 12 points midway through the third quarter.
In the loss to L.A. Golden State played good D holding them to 40.7% shooing while they shot 44.6% and solid from deep (44.1 3-pt FG%) but they could not stop LeBron James, who went for a triple-double and allowed him to make a 34 foot 3-pointer with just under a minute left giving the Lakers the 103-100 lead, which would stick.
Curry went for a team high 37 points on 12/23 shooting hitting six of his nine 3-pointers and Wiggins went for 21 points.
Curry (32 ppg) won the scoring title this season and he has scored at least 36 points in four of his last five games including his last two.
Kevon Looney (4.1 ppg 5.3 rpg) has pulled down at least 11 rebounds in three of his last four games and he has a tall task matching up with Valanciunas.
On the season Golden State is 25-11 at home.
Prediction
While the Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog they have only covered the spread in one of their last eight games following a win. Not only have the Warriors covered the spread in their last six games overall, but they have also covered in their last six games at home.
The Grizzlies were solid in their last game and were a good road team this season, but their season will end in this game. The Warriors have too much scoring and their D will play well just like they did in their last game despite the loss. This time around they will get the W and cover the spread nabbing the eighth seed in the playoffs where they will face the Utah Jazz.
PICK: Warriors