Milwaukee Bucks (60-33 44-49 ATS) at Phoenix Suns (65-27 55-35-2 ATS)
The Bucks have won their last two games to tie this NBA finals series at two games apiece, as it shifts back to the desert. You can see this game on ABC.
Back at home in Game 5 the Suns are the betting favorite posted at -4 with the total sitting at 218.
The home team has won and covered the spread in all four games of this series.
The Bucks beat the Suns 109-103 in Game 4 and they have given up 100 and 103 points in the last two games after giving up 118 in each of the first two games of the series.
Milwaukee has failed to cover the spread in two of their last 10 games as a road underdog.
Taking Over Late
In the Game 4 win the Bucks were down six points after the third quarter but outscored the Suns 33-21 in the fourth quarter. Milwaukee won the game even though they did not shoot the rock well (40.2%), allowed the Suns to shoot 51.3%, and did not have a good game from deep (7-29 from 3-pt range).
Kris Middleton came up big in the last game going for 40 points and Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points and 14 rebounds. Middleton hit some big shots late and the Greek Freak came up with a huge block near the end of the game that would have tied it.
Jrue Holliday was only 4/20 from the floor in Game 4 going for 13 points but he did play solid defense on Chris Paul.
The Bucks had five players score at least 11 points in the Game 4 win and balanced in needed for them to win, as the last two games showed. Their D was much better in the last two games of this series after giving up 118 points in each of the first two games.
Stay in the Game
In the Game 4 loss Devin Booker atoned for his bad performance in Game 3 with 42 points but foul trouble cost him time in the second half where the Suns could not pull away.
Paul was hounded by Holliday in the Game 4 loss and only had 10 points on 5/13 shooting and the frontcourt duo of DeAndre Ayton and Mikal Bridges only combined for 13 points on 6/19 shooting.
Paul has totaled 29 points in the last two games while in the two wins in Phoenix combined for 55 points.
The Suns had their chances in Game 4 and lost even though they shot the rock well while the Bucks did not. Paul needs to bounce back, big time, and the Suns need to get more balanced scoring like in the first two games of this series.
The Suns have covered the spread in their last five home games facing the Bucks.
This series swings back to Phoenix tied and with the Bucks the team with confidence winning the last two games. I think this game will play out like the last one in that it will be close. The Suns will play much better at home but Milwaukee will also play well, and they may not get the W but they will cover getting four points.
PICK: Bucks -4