Phoenix Suns (65-28 55-36-2 ATS) at Milwaukee Bucks (61-33 45-49 ATS)
The Bucks have stormed back and won the last three games of this series and can close it out at home in Game 6. This NBA finals game can be seen on ABC.
The Bucks are a 5-point home favorite in Game 5 with the total sitting at 222.
The Bucks beat the Suns on the road 123-119 to take a 3-2 series lead and it was the first game in the series where the road team won.
The Suns have given up at least 120 points in two of the last three games of this series. They shot the rock well in the Game 5 loss going 55.2% from the floor and 68.4% from 3-pt land but allowed Milwaukee to shoot 57.5% and 50% from deep.
The Bucks have won and covered the spread in their last four home games. On the other side of the coin the Suns had covered in six straight road games before failing to do so in Games 3 and 4 of this series.
Play Some D in the Middle
In the Game 5 loss the Suns had an early 16-point lead but allowed the Bucks to shoot lights out in the second and third quarter (32/45) where they were outscored 79-53.
Every Phoenix starter went for double figures in Game 5 with Devin Booker scoring 40 points, DeAndre Ayton going for 20 points and 10 boards, and Chris Paul scoring 21 points and handing out 11 assists.
Booker scored at least 40 points for the second straight game but when he was on the bench to start the second quarter the Suns were outscored 20-5. He was driving with the Suns down one late in the fourth quarter but had the ball stolen and an ensuing alley-oop to Giannis Antetokounmpo sealed the win for Milwaukee.
The Suns’ D has to play better in this game, and they need to be more aggressive than in Game 5 when they only took 11 free throws. They also have to be more careful with the rock and hit the glass giving up 17 offensive boards and turning the ball over 17 times. They will have to do those things in Milwaukee where they lost both games in this series.
The Big 3 Came to Play
In the Game 5 win Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton, and Jrue Holliday all played well in the win with each shooting over 50% from the field. Antetokounmpo had 32 points and nine rebounds, Middleton had 29 points, and Holliday had 27 points and 13 assists.
Holliday came up with the big steal in late in Game 5 and he has been up and down in the series but has scored at least 21 points and shot at least 57.1% from the floor in two of the last three games.
Antetokounmpo has been solid in the series and Middleton has totaled 69 points in the last two games after totaling 29 points in the previous two games.
When the Bucks have balance, they have won in this series and they need to keep that up. Antetokounmpo will get his points, but Phoenix needs to keep Middleton and Holliday from scoring and shooting a high FG%. If they cannot do that this series will be over.
In an interesting trend the Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four Tuesday games. However, do not look for that trend to continue. Milwaukee has all the momentum and they have won and covered in their last four home games. Phoenix will give them a game, but the Bucks will have balance, again, and they will win at home and cover winning their first title in 50 years.
PICK: Bucks -5