NBA Game 7 Model Picks ATS for 5-15

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It doesn’t get any better than this for NBA fans. Two game 7’s on tap for today as the Celtics host the Bucks and the Suns host the Mavs. Boston is favored by 5 with a total of 206 while the Suns are favored by -6.5 with a total of 205. Those odds are available at betonline.

No doubt the home team has an edge in these game 7’s in terms of winning straight up. Over the last decade home teams are 22-10 straight up in game 7’s. In fact, historically, the home teams wins game 7 at an even higher clip. However, against the spread those home teams are just 50% (16-16).

It’s also worth noting that the Celtics have played in more NBA game 7’s than any other team and have won over 70% of those games!

Here’s how our model sees both games today, each prediction using a different time frame in terms of the data used.

As you can see, the model has both games very close making both underdogs worth a strong look.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
Milwaukee                206.5         110           
Boston                    -5.0         117
Milwaukee                206.5         108           
Boston                    -5.0         111
Milwaukee                206.5         102           
Boston                    -5.0         103
Dallas                   205.0         108           
Phoenix                   -6.5         113
Dallas                   205.0          98           
Phoenix                   -6.5          92
Dallas                   205.0         104           
Phoenix                   -6.5         107