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The Mavericks host Golden State tonight looking to grab their first win in the series in which they trail 0-2. Safe to say a loss here in their season is done. A must win game, but will they?
The Mavs are favored by -3 with a total of 217.5. The money line is anywhere from -265 to -300.
We’ll list the prediction from our model at the very bottom of this page.
head-to-head history (playoffs):
5/20/2022 Dallas 117 + 6.5 at Golden State 126
5/18/2022 Dallas 87 + 5.0 at Golden State 112
5/ 3/2007 Dallas 86 - 3.0 at Golden State 111
5/ 1/2007 Golden State 112 + 9.5 at Dallas 118
4/29/2007 Dallas 99 - 4.0 at Golden State 103
4/27/2007 Dallas 91 - 4.0 at Golden State 109
4/25/2007 Golden State 99 + 9.5 at Dallas 112
4/22/2007 Golden State 97 +10.0 at Dallas 85
average outcome:
Golden State 108.6 Dallas 99.4
margin = -9.25
time-weighted average outcome:
Golden State 118.6 Dallas 101.9
margin = -16.70
average result when the home team is Dallas
Golden State 102.7 Dallas 105.0
margin = 2.33
average result when the home team is Golden State
Dallas 96.0 Golden State 112.2
margin = 16.20
58.54 % of games went Over
58.97 % went Over at Dallas
average total points per game = 208.00
time-weighted average total = 220.50
the home team covered 75.00 % of the time
the road team covered 25.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 7.31
the favorite covered 37.50 % of the time
the underdog covered 62.50 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -7.19
the favorite won SU 50.00 % of the time
Golden State covered 87.50 % of the time
Dallas covered 12.50 % of the time
Dallas covered 33.33 % of the time at home
Dallas covered 33.33 % of the time as home favorites
last 8 results:
5/20 Dallas 117 at Golden State 126 OV 214.0
5/18 Dallas 87 at Golden State 112 UN 214.5
5/15 Dallas 123 at Phoenix 90 OV 205.0
5/12 Phoenix 86 at Dallas 113 UN 212.0
5/10 Dallas 80 at Phoenix 110 UN 213.0
5/ 8 Phoenix 101 at Dallas 111 UN 214.5
5/ 6 Phoenix 94 at Dallas 103 UN 218.0
5/ 4 Dallas 109 at Phoenix 129 OV 216.0
***
5/20 Dallas 117 at Golden State 126 OV 214.0
5/18 Dallas 87 at Golden State 112 UN 214.5
5/13 Memphis 96 at Golden State 110 UN 218.5
5/11 Golden State 95 at Memphis 134 OV 218.5
5/ 9 Memphis 98 at Golden State 101 UN 224.5
5/ 7 Memphis 112 at Golden State 142 OV 225.5
5/ 3 Golden State 101 at Memphis 106 UN 227.5
5/ 1 Golden State 117 at Memphis 116 OV 220.5
ATS records since 1995, playoffs only
Golden State all: 85- 64 0.5705
Golden State road: 40- 30 0.5714
as a road dog: 17- 11 0.6071
Dallas all: 90- 83 0.5202
Dallas home: 38- 40 0.4872
as a home fav: 29- 29 0.5000
Model Predictions
1st score using full season data
2nd score using last 4 games data
3rd score using last 7 games data
Golden State 218.5 109
Dallas -2.0 109
Golden State 218.5 118
Dallas -2.0 106
Golden State 218.5 109
Dallas -2.0 107
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