The Giants host the Cardinals Sunday afternoon at 1 pm est. with both teams in off Monday Nighters with very different results. The Cards came from behind to edge the Chargers in a close one while the Giants resembled a Pop Warner team in their loss to the Lions. For this one, the Cards are -2.5 point road favorites at sportsbook.ag with a total of 43.5.
This is a spot you always need to use caution with. In many bettors eyes, a team is only as good as their last Game. This is especially true when that last Game was a Monday Night Game with the entire nation watching. More times than not, we see the team that looked terrible do a 100% turnaround the following week. After all, these are professionals and the differeNCe between the best the NFL has to offer and the worst, is very, very slim.
With that being said, this may be a spot where the masses are correct (as 76% of the wagers taken on this Game have come in on the Cards). We mention this in all of Our early season NFL write ups. When handicapping the NFL in week 1 or 2, we’re forced to use last years data combined with week 1 results combined with whatever it is we can learn from the lone regular season Game each team played this year.
For example, if this Game were to have been played at the end of last season, Our model would have had the Cardinals winning by a score of 27-17. Using that as Our starting point, we have to ask, what moves have been made in the off season and pre season that could impact that predicted final?
The Cards were knocking on the door last year, going 10-6 yet missing the playoffs. If this was high school, they would have been voted most likely to succeed this year. They should oNCe again be a contender. The mediocre Giants however, made a very significant move by bringing in new Offensive Coordinator Ben McAdoo and switching to the West Coast Offense. With a move like that, comes a learning curve. No way around it and that was evident on Monday.
Eventually, the Giants offense will get humming. They are likely to look a little better with each passing week. But right now, in week 2, I think we have to revert back to the models prediction using last years data (plus week 1) and give that prediction some validity.
This is typically not the type of situation we’d like to get involved with. Would anyone really be surprised to see the Giants win this one straight up? But everything here points towards Arizona being the better football team right now, so only one way to go. Cardinals -2.5