Eagles Niners NFL Pick Week 4

323
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Eagles

vs.

49ers

NFL

Free Pick

with Analysis

9/28/14

The San Francisco 49ers will host the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday in what looks to be one of the marquee Games of the afternoon. The surprising Eagles come in undefeated at 3-0 while the 49ers are struggling out of the GAte at 1-2. The 49ers are currently -4.5 point home favorites with a total of 51 at 5 dimes sportsbook.

If you had to pick one of these teams to be undefeated coming into this one prior to the season, most of you would have likely pegged that team to be the 49ers. Put me in that group as well. But here we sit with the 49ers in jeopardy of starting the year 1-3 while the Eagles could be 4-0 and on their way.

The 49ers have had trouble on both sides of the ball this year as their early yards per point numbers indicate. Their ypp numbers of 16.1 on offense and 13.8 on defense place them in the bottom half of the NFL. No such troubles for the Eagles on offense as their 12.4 offensive number places them #2 overall, however, their defensive number of 14.8 places them at 20th in the league on that side of the ball.

I don’t think I’d be going out on much of a limb if I suggested that the 49ers numbers will likely improve and that improvement is likely to start this week against the Eagles. The Eagles 3 wins have come against the Jags Colts and Redskins. Not exactly among the NFL’s elite and certainly not among the best defensively. The Eagles have put up 34, 30 and 37 points in those three Games but have given up 17, 27 and 34 points as well.

The Niners are banged up and have blown a couple of leads in their two losses but this is a spot that has the potential to get those offensive numbers jacked up as the Eagles haven’t really been able to put up much of a fight defensively thus far. This Game certainly has the potential to give the scoreboard operator a workout.

I’ve mentioned Our Score Prediction model in other NFL write ups. We’re sill a week away from being able to rely on the models predictions using data from only this year. So, we run two sets of predictions until then, one using this years data only and the other using a combination of this year and last. Both sets of predictions have the 49ers winning this Game by double digits.

I’d have to agree with the model here. I think the desperation will set in a bit here. This is a must win Game for San Fran. Good, playoff teams, which the 49ers can still be, don’t start the year by going 1-3 and losing their first two home Games. The Eagles with be a threat to win or at least cover every Game this year what that high powered offense, but in this spot, we have to side with the 49ers. San Fran -4.5

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