Saints
vs.
Cowboys
Week 4
NFL Pick
9/28/14
The Dallas Cowboys will host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football this week in a Game that kicks off at 830pm est. and can be seen on NBC-TV. The Saints are -3 point road favorites over the Cowboys with a posted total of 53.5 at sportsbook.ag. That also happens to be the highest total of the week in the NFL.
We mentioned in another write up this week how sometimes it takes the betting public awhile to catch up with some teams. They remember the glory days as if they were only yesterday and as a result, they continue to bet those teams with the same enthusiasm as several years ago.
Both of these teams would fit into that above mentioned category. Heck, sometimes I think bettors think Troy Aikman and Jimmy Johnson are still in Dallas. But in this Game, it’s the Saints we’re going to focus on, primarily because they were installed as road favorites against a Cowboys team we think is likely better than the Saints.
The Saints were 11-5 a year ago and won a playoff Game against the Eagles in a shootout before getting bouNCed out by the Seahawks. But really, the Saints were a mediocre team with mediocre numbers last season and never posed much of a threat in the playoffs. Here they are in 2014, 1-2 with losses to the Falcons and Browns while giving up 37 and 26 points in the process. Last week they beat a hobbled Vikings team 20-9 for their lone win thus far.
The Cowboys opened up with the 49ers and in that Game, had their moments in a losing effort. That loss was followed by two wins against the Titans and Rams, albeit unimpressive wins to say the least. The point here is that neither of these teams have been anything to write home about. Throw these two on a neutral field and I think you’d have to make the line a pick em. But here in Dallas, the Cowboys should be the ones favored by a field goal, not the other way around.
Our model, Our power ratings and quite frankly, every statistical method we use to get a number on a Game, all agree that the wrong team is favored here. So we’ll grab the +3 in a home Game for the Cowboys that they can certainly win outright. Dallas +3