Saints
vs.
Falcons
Week 1
NFL Free Pick
9/7/14
The Saints visit the Falcons to kick off the 2014 NFL season in Atlanta in off of an 11-6 season that ended at the hands of eventual Super Bowl Champ Seattle Seahawks. They are currently -3 point road favorites over a Falcons team in off a disappointing 4-12 year. Those odds courtesy of 5dimes.com.
The new NFL season brings hope to every team in the league. The NFL is like no other professional league in that way. We see teams go from first to worst and worst to first often. That’s great for fans, but not necessarily great for handicappers. As a handicapper, you’ve got to take a good hard look at every single underdog on the card, not just in week 1 but in every week of the season. As sure as you’re reading this you can bet that there will be plenty of underdogs winning straight up this weekend. Will the Falcons be one of those?
The Saints beat the Falcons twice a year ago. In those Games it was Drew Brees going to work against a couple of young corners for the Falcons. Well, those young corners are a year older, but still young. Brees figures to go to work oNCe again on these kids which just about guarantees the Saints will move the ball fairly easily and get their points. Can the Falcons do the same?
We think so. As good of a season as the Saints had in the win/loss column, they weren’t a dominating team. In fact, oNCe we got past the Wild Card round of the playoffs, they were the worst of the remaining playoff teams. They were the only team with a neGAtive turnover ratio from that point on and their yards per point numbers were simply average. Their ROAD yards per points numbers were just plain bad with an offensive number of 19.5 and a defensive number of 14.7 to go along with their 3-6 road record. (an offensive number of 15 would be average at best. The lower the number, the better the offense).
The Saints have had the Falcons number since 2006, winning 13 of the last 16. But 7 of the last 11 Games have been decided by 4 points or less and last years Games were decided by 4 and 6 points. The close Games in this series and specifically last year really illustrate just how small the differeNCe can be between an 11 win team and a 4 win team.
I think the Saints are vulnerable here and ripe for an upset and I think you need to look no further than their less than mediocre results on the road a year ago to prove that point. The public is all over the Saints here to the tune of 80% which only strengthens Our position. We’ll call for the straight up Atlanta win. Falcons +3