Denver Broncos
vs.
L.A. Chargers
Week 7
NFL Pick
10/22/17
By: Jason Green
Denver Broncos (3-2 SU 2-2-1 ATS) vs. L.A. Chargers (2-4 SU 2-3-1 ATS)
After an 2-0 start the Broncos have lost two of their last three Games and in their last Game they lost to the New York Giants, who got their first win of the season. Oh yeah, that Game was in Denver no less. The Broncos have only averaged 14 points in their last three Games, but they are balanced and have a solid D ranking 8th in the league giving up an average of 19.4 ppg.
At 5 dimes sportsbook this Game is a PICK with a total of 40.5.
The Chargers are the opposite of the Broncos, as they lost their first Four Games of the season, but have won their last two. Five of their six Games have been decided by five points or less and while Phillip Rivers is putting up good numbers L.A. only ranks tied for 22nd in ppg and he is not getting much help from a run Game that ranks 2nd to last in the league in rushing yards per Game.
These teams met in the season opener at Denver where the Broncos beat the Chargers 24-21.
The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six road Games against the Chargers.
The Broncos laid an egg in their last Game losing to the New York Giants at home 23-10 where they GAve up 412 yards and only had 266 yards. It did not help that Denver turned the ball over three times and did not force one. Trevor Siemian passed for 376 yards and a TD, but had 2 INT in the Game. Demaryius Thomas (133 yards) led three Denver players that had at least 76 receiving yards, but none had a TD.
The Broncos were stuffed in their ground Game in the loss to the Giants with a grand total of 46 yards. Jamaal Charles and C.J. Anderson only combined for 36 rushing yards on 14 carries, but this Sunday will be facing a Chargers’ run defense that ranks dead last in the NFL, but as not bad in their last Game holding the Raiders to 109 yards on the ground.
In their last Game the Chargers beat the Oakland Raiders 17-16 where they held Oakland to 274 yards and they scored 10 points in the 4th quarter. Phillip Rivers passed for 268 yards with a TD and a pick and Hunter Henry led the team with 90 receiving yards. While Melvin Gordon rushed for 83 yards he only averaged 3.3 yards per carry and will be up against a Denver run D that is the top ranked unit in the league. He needs to help Rivers out in this Game as the L.A. QB had a good Game in the first match up with the Broncos, but the Chargers only rushed for 64 yards.
The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road Games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games following a ATS loss, and in their last 5 Games against a team with a losing record the Under record is 5-2.
The Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Games overall, 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 5 Games after a win they have an Over record of 3-1-1.
Jason’s Pick: The Chargers have won two in a row, but they have lost their last five Games facing a team with a winning record and their home field advantage is pretty non-existent. Denver will win this Game with their defense and they will lean on the run and while they will not blow out the Chargers they will win in a close Game like the first match up with them this season.