Chiefs – Cowboys Week 9 Free Pick with Analysis

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Week 9

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green

Kansas City Chiefs  (6-2 SU 6-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-3 SU 4-3 ATS)

The Chiefs snapped their two-Game skid with a win over their AFC rival Broncos in their last Game and they are running away with the AFC West. They are at 6-2 and the only team in the division that does not have a losing record. The KC D has not been great, but their offense has and they are balanced on that side of the ball and rank 3rd in the NFL putting up an average of 29.5 ppg.

At 5 dimes sportsbook this Game has this Game as a PICK with a total of 51. 

The Cowboys have won two in a row where their offense has been legit, but they are now without the suspended RB Ezekiel Elliot, for the time being, and that is a big blow. He leads a rushing offense that ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards per Game and with him out Dak Prescott will have to step up and the defense, which ranks tied for 20th in the league in points allowed per Game, has to do so as well.

These teams have not met since the 2013 season.

The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these non-Conference teams.

The Chiefs are coming off a Monday night 29-19 win over the Denver Broncos where they had fewer overall yards and only had 276 total yards, but they forced five turnovers. Alex Smith passed for 202 yards with a TD and no INT and TE Travis Kelse was his main target going for 133 yards with a TD. Rookie of the Year RB Kareem Hunt was held to only 46 yards averaging a weak 2.1 yards per carry and he has not rushed for over 87 yards in his last three Games while cracking the 100+ rushing yard barrier Four times in his first five Games.

Dallas ranks 12th in the league in pass defense and 14th in run defense and both units will have to play well in this Game.

The Cowboys are coming off beating their hated rival Washington Redskins 29-19 in their last Game. They only had 22 more overall yards in the Game, but capitalized on three Redskins turnovers and the ran for 169 yards as well as stuffing the run. However. Elliot rushed for 150 yards in the Game and with him out Alfred Morris will be the lead back and in the win over the Skins he only rushed for three yards on three carries. Dak Prescott passed for 143 yards in the Game, but he has the weapons and he will likely air it out more in this Game with Elliot on the sidelines. America’s Team could really use Elliot in this match up since the KC run defense only ranks 29th in the league.

The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road Games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games overall, and in their last 7 road Games the Over record is 6-1.

The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home Games, 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 4 Games the Over record is 4-0.

Jason’s Pick: The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in their last Four Games facing a team with a winning record and they are without their big gun on offense in this Game. That does not spell success, as the Chiefs will be steady and solid while the Cowboys will bot be and KC will win this Game and move to 7-2 on the season. 

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