Falcons – Lions Week 3 Free NFL Pick

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Week 3

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green

It is not hard to believe that the Falcons and Lions are off to 2-0 starts, but it is a little surprising that each won by double-digits in their last Game even though both were out-GAined in total yards. Atlanta beat the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game putting up 34 points and jumping out to a big lead. Their win over the Packers was a good one while their Week 1 win over the Bears, only winning by six points, was not.

The Falcons are -3 point favs at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 50.5.

The Lions easily beat the New York Giants on Monday night where they stuffed the run and their defense played well. Matthew Stafford has also been playing well and he is getting help from the run Game. Detroit is the 3-point home underdog and they have failed to cover the spread in their last Four Games facing the Falcons.

The Falcons beat the Packers 34-23 in their last Game where they stuffed the run, forced two turnovers and did not commit any, and they had a 34-10 lead heading into the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan passed for 252 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT and Julio Jones (108 receiving yards) and Mohamed Sanu (85 receiving yards) each played well. Devonta Freeman rushed for 84 yards averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per carry and he also had two TD.

The Atlanta offensive line has to protect Ryan facing a Lions’ pass rush that had five sacks in their last Game.

 The Lions beat the New York Giants 24-10 on Monday night even though they only had 257 total yards. They held the Giants to only 62 rushing yards while they had 138 rushing yards. Matthew Stafford was 15 for 21 and while only passing for 122 yards he had two TD. Stafford is completing over 70% of his lasses and on the season has 6 TD and only 1 INT. Ameer Abdullah rushed for 82 yards and it will be key in this NFC match up which RB can have a good Game with each facing an opposing run D that stuffed the run in their last Game.

The Falcons have won eight of their last 10 road Games.

The last time these teams met it was the 2014 season in Atlanta where the Lions beat the Falcons 22-21.

Key Betting Trends

The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road Games, 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 21 Games they have an Over record of 17-3-1.

The Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home Games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games overall, and in their last 10 Games they have an Under record of 10-3.

In the last 7 Games between these teams the Under record is 6-1.


Jason’s Pick: I am going with the Falcons in this Game, as they are a legit Super Bowl contender while the Lions are just a playoff contender. The Game will be a pretty close one, but Ryan will get the better of Stafford and Atlanta will get the W and cover the spread.

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