New York Jets
By: Jason Green
New York Jets (3-3 SU 4-2 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS)
The Jets came close to beating the Patriots in their last Game having a 4th quarter TD overturned to a fumble. Still, New York is in the AFC East race after many though they would go winless on the season. They had their three-Game winning streak snapped in the loss to the Pats and while they are at .500 they have not beaten any good teams, unless you count the Jaguars, and they do not rank in the top 17 in the league in passing or rushing yards per Game.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Dolphins are 3-point favorites with a total of 38.5.
The Dolphins turned in one of the biggest shockers last week beating the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta. They have won two in a row and while they have not been lighting up the scoreboard they have only allowed a total of 27 points in their last two Games. To say Miami is led by their D would be an understatement, as they rank dead last in the league in ppg, but 3rd in opponents’ ppg.
The Jets got their first win of the season facing the Dolphins at home beating them 20-6.
The Jets are not only 6-2 ATS in their last eight Games facing the Dolphins, but have covered in 15 of their last 21 Games facing them in Miami.
The Jets lost to the Patriots 24-17 in their last Game where they had more overall yards (408 to 375), but had the TD overturned and committed three turnovers. Josh McCown had a big Game passing for 354 yards with 2 TD, but he was also sacked Four times and had 2 INT. Three players had at least 61 receiving yards led by Jermaine Kearse, who had 79 yards. McCown did not get much help from the run Game, as the Jets only had 74 rushing yards. Matt Forte returned from injury and while he had 59 receiving yards he only rushed for 22 yards averaging a paltry 2.4 yards per carry.
The Jets played a great Game on defense in their earlier home win over the Dolphins holding them to only 225 yards and they totally stuffed the run holding the Fish to only 30 rushing yards.
In their last Game the Dolphins came up with a HUGE upset beating the Atlanta Falcons 20-17 on the road. The Game was a tale of two halves with the Falcons outscored the Dolphins 17-0 in the first half and the Dolphins outscoring them 20-0 in the 2nd half. Overall, Miami had 50 fewer yards, but they had a better ground Game and came up big in the 2nd half. Jay Cutler only passed for 151 yards and had an INT, but he had 2 TD and led Miami to Four 2nd half scoring drives. One of the big reasons they won is the play of RB Jay Ajay, who rushed for 130 yards averaging five yards per carry. He only had 16 yards on 11 carries in the loss to the Jets earlier this season and has to atone for that in this Game, as he will get a heavy workload.
The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road Games, and in their last 5 road Games the Under record is 4-1.
The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games in October, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Games following a ATS win, and in their last 6 Games the Under record is 6-0.
Jason’s Pick: The favorite has covered the spread in Four of the last five Games between these AFC East rivals and that trend will continue this Sunday in the Sunshine State. Miami will play great defense and run the ball well and they will get some payback on the Jets beating them and covering the 3-point spread.