Lions – Bears Week 11 Free Pick with Analysis

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Week 11

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green

Detroit Lions (5-4 SU 5-4 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-6 SU 5-4 ATS)

After losing three in a row the Lions have won their last two Games. They are tied with the Green Bay Packers for 2nd place in the NFC North two Games back of the Minnesota Vikings. Detroit has scored 30 and 38 points respectively in their last two Games and are all about Matthew Stafford and the offense that ranks 6th in the league in ppg. He has not gotten much help from the run Game and the defense only ranks 21st in points allowed.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Lions are 2.5-point favorites with a total of 41.

The Bears have lost two in a row and are in the basement of the NFC North. Their last two Games have been pretty close, but a loss is a loss and in their last Game they failed to run the ball, which is their strength on the offensive side of the football.  Mitchell Trubisky did have nearly 300 passing yards in the last Game, but the Bears still lost and they still only rank 31st in passing yards per Game and for them to win they need to run the ball.

The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games against the Lions.

In their last Game the Lions beat the Cleveland Browns 38-24. Detroit came back to win the Game after giving up 14 points in the 3rd quarter and in facing a winless Cleveland team they were out-GAined 413 yards to 345 yards and they GAve up 201 rushing yards, but did force two turnovers. Stafford passed for 249 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT Golden Tate was his main target with 97 receiving yards and a TD. The Lions rushed for 104 yards with Ameer Abdullah leading the way with 52 of them averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

Chicago’s defense has not been bad this season, ranking 13th in the league in points allowed per Game, and they rank 10th defending the pass and 15th defending the run.

The Bears lost to the Green Bay Packers 23-16 in their last Game and it really hurt that they struggled to run the ball. Overall, they were only out-GAined 342 yards to 323 yards, but they also were only 4/14 on 3rd down conversions. Trubisky had his biggest Game as a pro passing for 297 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT and Dontrelle Inman led Four players with at least 39 receiving yards with 88 of them. Jordan Howard was held to 54 rushing yards averaging a less than stellar 3.6 yards per carry. He had rushed for 012 yards in his previous Game and look for Chicago to lean on him in this Game. However, while the Lions rank a legit 10th in the league in run D they only rank 25th in pass D.

The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games against a team with a losing record, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 November Games, and in their last 5 Games the Over record is 4-1.

The Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home Games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Games against a team with a winning record, and in their last 5 home Games the Under record is 4-1.

Jason’s Pick: The Bears usually come to play on D at home, but they will be facing Stafford and a Lions’ squad that is 3-1 on the road this season. Only getting 2.5 points I have to go with Detroit in this one, as Stafford will carry them to the win and they will cover the spread in the Windy City as well.

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