Week 7 NFL Pick
By: Jason Green
Miami Dolphins (4-2 SU 3-2-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-4 SU 3-4 ATS)
The Dolphins are one of the more surprising teams in the league this season and they have won three straight Games. Jay Cutler has been decent under center, but suffered a rib injury in the last Game and he is out for this Game meaning Matt Moore will be getting the starting nod. The Dolphins have not shown much offense and they rank 2nd to last in the league in ppg, but they rank a legit tied for 6th in points against per Game.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Ravens are the 3-point favorites with a total of 37.5.
The Ravens are reeling, as after winning their first two Games they have lost Four of their last five iNCluding two in a row. They also do not have a dyna mic offense, but a good defense and they have been beset by injuries this season and they have nine players on IR and have only scored 10 offensive TD’s. Joe FlACCo leads an offense that ranks dead last in the league in passing yards per Game and Baltimore is only 1-3 at home this season.
The Ravens have covered the spread in their last seven Games facing the Dolphins.
The Dolphins won their 3rd in a row in their last Game beating the New York Jets 31-28. Miami out-GAined New York 357-272, but they really struggled to run the ball with only 53 rushing yards. When Moore came in for the injured Cutler he passed for two TD in the last 12 minutes and for the Game was 13/21 for 188 yards and was picked off oNCe. Overall, the Fish had 326 passing yards in the Game and Jarvis LAndry and Kenny Still combined for 3 TD and 178 receiving yards.
Miami’s Jay Ajayi had 51 of the Dolphins 53 rushing yards in the win over the Jets and he only averaged 2.2 yards per carry. He may be able to turn things around in this Game facing a Baltimore run D that GAve up 169 rushing yards in their last Game.
In their last Game the Ravens lost to the Minnesota Vikings 24-16 where they only generated 208 total yards. Joe FlACCo is working with one of the thinnest WR corps in the league and he was 27/39 for 186 yards with a TD and no INT and only averaged a paltry 4.8 yards per reception. Benjamin Watson led three players for the Ravens that had at least 31 receiving yards. Baltimore only rushed for 60 yards in the Game led by Alex Collins, who rushed for 30 yards on 10 carries. With the lack of depth the Ravens have on the outside and FlACCo putting up less than impressive numbers Collins will have to shoulder more of the offensive load and the defense has to come up big.
The Dolphins are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 Games following a ATS loss, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Games in October, and in their last 4 road Games the Under record is 4-0.
The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record, and in their last 5 Games the Over record is 4-1.
The underdog is 7-3 in the last 10 Games between these teams.
Jason’s Pick: Moore played well in the last Game taking over for Cutler and I think the Dolphins are better off with him under center. He will have a good Game and the Miami defense will keep the Ravens and their less than dynamic offense in check. Miami will not only cove r the spread in this Game, but get the win as well sending the Ravens to their 3rd straight loss.