Pats – Bills Week 13 Free Pick with Analysis

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Patriots

vs.

Bills
 
Week 13

NFL Pick  

12/3/17
 
By: Jason Green
 
New England Patriots (9-2 SU 7-4 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-5 SU 6-4-1 ATS)
 
 The Patriots have won seven in a row and they have a comfortable three-Game lead over the Bills in the AFC East. They are tied with the Steelers for the best record in the AFC and they face them on the road in a couple of weeks, which is a Game that may determine home field advantage in the playoffs. Tom Brady is putting up MVP numbers again leading a New England offense that ranks 3rd in the league in ppg and their D has been playing well also and ranks 11th in points allowed.
 
 At 5 dimes sportsbook the Patriots are the 10-point favorite with a total of 48.
 
 The Bills snapped their three-Game skid in their last Game, which got them to over .500. While it is unlikely they will catch the Patriots in the AFC East they face them twice to end the season and the Wild Card is still a possibility. Tyrod Taylor is back at QB, but they need to run the ball and play solid defense to pull off the upset in this Game. Buffalo had given up an average of 45 ppg in their three-Game losing streak before only giving up 10 in their last Game.
 
 The Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 Games facing the Bills in Buffalo.
 
 In their last Game the Patriots kept their winning streak alive with a 35-17 win over the Miami Dolphins. New England jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead, out-GAined the Dolphins, 417 yards to 221 yards, and they forced three turnovers. Brady passed for 227 yards with 4 TD and 1 INT and Brandin Cooks (83 receiving yards) and Rob Gronkowski (82 receiving yards) combined for 3 TD. The Pats rushed for 196 yards with Dion Lewis leading the way with 112 yards on the ground.
 
 Buffalo only ranks 22nd in the league in pass defense and 21st in run defense, but their D played well in their last Game holding the Chiefs to only 236 total yards and they stuffed the run.
 
 The Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs 16-10 in their last Game where they only had 268 total yards, but they forced the Game’s only turnover, which was a big one with a late INT that iced the Game. Taylor passed for 183 yards with a TD and no INT and also rushed for 27 yards with hi lead target being Charles Clay with 60 receiving yards. Buffalo did not have a great Game on the ground and lead RB LeSean McCoy only rushed for 49 yards averaging a weak 2.2 yards per carry. He had rushed for 114 yards in his previous Game and Taylor will not light it up with his arm, and McCoy must play well in this division match up.
 
 The Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road Games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Games facing a team with a winning record, and in their last 7 Games they have an Under record of 5-2.
 
 The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record, and in their last 6 Games the Over record is 5-1.
 
 Jason’s Pick: The Bills lost badly in three in a row before winning their last Game facing a reeling Chiefs’ team. They will not fare well in this Game facing Brady and company, as New England will easily win this Game, cover the spread, and, pretty much, wrap up the AFC East.