Saints – Packers Week 7 Free Pick with Analysis

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New Orleans Saints

vs.

Green Bay Packers

Week 7

NFL Pick

10/22/17

By: Jason Green

New Orleans Saints (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-2 SU 3-3 ATS)

The Saints are heading into LAmbeau Field facing the 4-win Packers as a betting favorite? Well, easy to understand since they do not have to face Aaron Rodgers, who is out several weeks with an injury. After losing their first two Games of the season New Orleans has won three in a row and they put up 52 points in their last Game. The defense still has issues, but Drew Brees leads an offense that ranks 4th in the lague in ppg.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Saints are 5-point favorites with a total of 47.5.

Well, back to the drawing board for the Packers, who are without their leader for a while and 3rd year QB Brett Hundley will be making his first career start. The loss of Rodgers is obviously a big one and they may have to lean on the run more even though they only rank 26th in the league averaging 88.3 rushing yards per Game. The Packers had their three-Game win streak snapped in their last Game against the Minnesota Vikings, who they are now tied with atop the NFC North.

While the Saints have covered in Four of their last five Games facing the Packers the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven Games between these two teams.

In the last eight Games between these teams the total has gone Over every time.

The Saints are coming off a wild 52-38 win over the Detroit Lions where they had 379 total yards and forced five turnovers. New Orleans did not have a ton of yards and Brees did not have a big Game, but they scored three defensive TD’s. Brees was 20 for 30 for 186 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT and Ted Ginn Jr. was the lead target with 66 receiving yards. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined to rush for 189 yards and Ingram had 2 TD.

New Orleans will be facing a Green Bay defense that GAve up 351 yards in their last Game and will be more important in this Game without Rodgers under center.

In their last Game the Packers lost to the Vikings 23-10 where they were shut out in the first half. When Hundley came in he did pass for 157 yards with a TD, but he was picked off three times. Green Bay has a solid WR corps led by Jordy Nelson, but Hundley has to find them and cut down on the turnovers. The Packers only rushed for 72 yards in the loss to Minnesota and Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones have to step up and run the ball well with an inexperieNCed QB at the helm.

Which New Orleans’ D will show up in this Game the one that allowed 38 points in their last Game or the one that got a shutout in their previous one?

The Saints are 1-2 ATS in their last 13 road Games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games overall, and in their last 8 Games the Over record is 7-1.

The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home Games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games following a straight up loss, and in their last 13 Games the Over record is 11-2.

Jason’s Pick: Hundley was not impressive in coming in for Rodgers in his last Game, but has been working with him this week to get on track. I think he will do just that having a solid Game and limiting his turnovers. Brees will have a good Game and the Saints will put up points, but the Packers will as well and while they may not get the W they will cover sat home in what will not be a low scoring defensive contest.
 

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