Texans – Patriots Week 3 ATS Pick

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Week 3

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green

After losing badly in their first Game of the season the Texas got back to their strength, which is their defense, by winning their last Game holding the Cincinnati Bengals to only nine points. Deshaun Watson will make his 2nd career start in this Game and it looks as if the QB position is his unless he falls apart. The defense won the Game for Houston in their last one, but how will they stack up against Tom Brady and the Pats in their house?

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Patriots are 14.5-point favorites with a total of 44.

Well, the Patriots got back in the W column in their last Game after their pretty shocking opening Game home loss to the Chiefs. Tom Brady was back to the Brady we are used to seeing outing up big numbers in the 16-point win over the New Orleans Saints and in that Game New England racked up 555 total yards.

These teams met last season in the divisional playoffs in New England where the Patriots beat the Texans 34-16.

The Patriots have covered their spread in their last five Games facing the Texans.

In their last Game the Texans beat the Cincinnati Bengals 13-9 where Houston had fewer overall yards, but they forced the only turnover in the Game. The Texans were able to run the ball in the Game and the only TD came on a Watson run. He was 15/24 for 125 yards and he did not have a passing TD or an INT and was also the leading rusher for the team with 67 yards on the ground. LAmar Miller and D’Onta Foreman combined for 101 rushing yards in the Game, but neither averaged over 3.4 yards per carry.

It is pretty simple for the Texans, as to have any chance to pull off the shocker in New England they will have to play great defense, come on J.J. Watt and company, and they have to run the ball to help keep Brady off the field.

The Patriots got their first win of the season in their last Game beating the New Orleans Saints 36-20 where their run Game was not great, but Brady was lighting it up to the tune of 447 yards with 3 TD and no INT. Five players had at least 41 receiving yards led by TE Rob Gronkowski (116 yards 1 TD) and the Texans’ Dwill have their hands full. They also have to worry about RB Mike Gillislee     and while he did not have a great Game against New Orleans (69 yards 1 TD 3.8 yards per carry) Houston has to play good all-around D and not just worry about Brady. The pass rush will be key for Houston in this Game and while they had three sacks facing the Bengals Watt and Jadeveon Clowney still have yet to register one for the season.

The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road Games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Games overall, and in their last 5 road Games the Under record is 4-1.

The Patriots are 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 home Games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games in September, and in their last 6 Games the Over record is 6-0.

Jason’s Pick: The Pats are giving 14.5 points and I think the oddsmakers should give more. Houston has a legit defense, but Brady will still carve them up, as the Texans have not faced a solid aerial attack this season, which is obviously what the Patriots have. New England will easily win this Game and cover the spread in a score, which will be similar to last season’s playoff match up between these teams.


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