By: Jason Green
Houston Texans (4-7 SU 7-4 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-4 SU 4-6-1 ATS)
When the Texans lost Deshaun Watson things went downhill quick and they have lost Four of their last five Games. Even without Watson their offense has been legit, but their D has let them down, minus J.J. Watt, and they only rank 29th in the NFL in points against. The AFC is still pretty wide-open and this may be a must win Game for the Texans and their slim playoff chances.
Early in the season Houston crushed Tennessee 57-14, but that was with Watson under center having a big Game.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Titans are the 7-point favorite with a total of 43.
The Titans are playing well and have won five of their last six Games. They are tied for first place in the AFC South with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who they face at home in their season finale. While Tennessee is definitely in the playoff hunt they have played an easy Schedule in the last few Games and they do not face a team that currently has a winning record until the 2nd last Game of the season.
Houston has covered in seven of their last eight Games facing the Titans and have also covered in five of their last six Games against them on the road.
The Texans hit the road in their last Game in a Monday night affair and they fell to the Baltimore Ravens 23-16. Houston out-GAined Baltimore 303 yards to 294 yards, but they had three turnovers and did not force any and after an early TD they were held to field goals the rest of the Game. Tom Savage passed for 252 yards with no TD and a couple of picks and he had played well in the previous Game. DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 125 receiving yards and Houston struggled to run the ball with a grand total of 66 rushing yards. LAmar Miller had 512 of them, but also only averaged a paltry three yards per carry.
Tennessee is much stronger defending the run (ranking 5th) than the pass (ranking 20th), but can Savage take advantage of that?
In their last Game the Titans beat AFC South foe Indianapolis 20-16. They did not rack up a lot of yards (276), but they held the Colts to only 254 yards and they defended the run well. Marcus Mariota passed for 184 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT and Tennessee may want to hit the ground more in this Game, as Mariota has seven picks and only three TD in his last three Games. Derrick Henry rushed for 79 yards in the win over the Colts and he and DeMarco Murray will be facing a Houston run defense that ranks a legit 7th in the league. However, their pass D only ranks 24th.
The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road Games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games against teams from the AFC South, and in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record the Over record is 5-1.
The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a losing road record, 9-23-3 in their last 35 home Games, and in their last 4 home Games they have an Over record of 4-0.
Jason’s Pick: The Titans have played a pretty weak Schedule in their last few Games, but they are winning and they are at home in this Game. Houston only has one road win this season and they will not add to that total this Sunday. Tennessee will win and cover and stay in first place in the AFC South.