Packers vs. Lions – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/29/19

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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions – Week 17 NFL Betting Analysis

Green Bay Packers (12-3 10-5 ATS) at Detroit Lions (3-11-1 5-10 ATS)

The Packers are in the playoffs, winners of the NFC North but still have a lot to play for in this game being a big 12.5-point road favorite facing the Detroit Lions. The total for this NFC North showdown in Motor City is set at 43.

Even with a big spread, the public has backed the Packers, as they opened as a 10-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 12.5-point favorite.

The Packers are currently in the 2nd seed in the NFC playoffs at 11-3 with the same record as the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers. They hold the tiebreaker with the Saints but not the 49ers, so if they can win and the 49ers lose to the Seattle Seahawks Green Bay will have the #1 seed and get home-field advantage for the post-season.

The Packers have won four in a row and they are coming off a HUGE 23-10 Monday night road win over the Minnesota Vikings, which gave them the NFC North title. Green Bay’s offense has not been overly impressive in the four-game streak, but their defense has giving up an average of 12.8 ppg.

Earlier this season in Green Bay the Packers beat the Lions 23-22.

This has been a bad season for the Lions, who have lost eight in a row and are headed for a very high pick in the next draft. They have been without starting QB Matthew Stafford for the last several weeks, their offense has sputtered in the 2nd half of the season, and they have given up 65 points in their last two games.

In their last game, the Lions lost to the Denver Broncos 27-17.

The Lions have covered the spread in their last five games facing the Packers.

Killer D and Jones Leads Packers to Division Title

In their 23-10 win over the Vikings that gave the Packers the NFC North title, they held Minnesota to only 139 total yards and Aaron Jones rushed for 154 yards.

Green Bay shut out the Vikings in the 2nd half and held the Vikings to only 57 rushing yards. They won pretty easily despite three turnovers while only forcing one.

Aaron Rodgers passed for 216 yards with no TD and one INT. He had not had an INT in eight games before the last one and has not passed for over 243 yards in any of his last seven games.

Jones was big in the win over the Vikings with 154 rushing yards and two TD, including a 56-yard scoring scamper, and averaged a more than solid 6.7 yards per carry. He leads the NFL in rushing TD (16) and has rushed for at least 134 yards in two of his last three games.

The Lions’ defense allowed 150 rushing yards in their last game and on the season they rank 21st in the league in run defense and dead last in pass defense.

Not Much on Offense

While the Lions scored 17 points in their last game they only had 191 total yards and were dominated in time of possession (36:08-23:52).

The Lions are down to 3rd string QB David Blough and in the loss to the Broncos he was 12/24 for 117 yards with a TD and no INT and was sacked four times. Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough combined for 76 rushing yards in the loss to Denver and they will man the backfield in this game.

In the loss to the Packers earlier this season they forced three turnovers and did not commit any but still lost being outgained 447 yards to 299 yards and they had eight penalties for 50 yards.

The Lions will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 18th in the league defending the pass and 23rddefending the run.

 Our Prediction

While the Lions have covered in their last five games facing the Packers they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games, overall. On the other side of the coin the Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.

These teams played a close game in Detroit earlier this season but don’t look for that to happen in this game. The defense will play great again for Green Bay and even giving 12.5-points they will still cover facing a reeling Lions’ team.

PICK: Packers -12.5