Colts at Chargers Week 1 NFL Pick with Analysis – 9/8/19

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colts at chargers week 1 nfl pick
Jacoby Brissett takes over for Andrew Luck
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The Chargers host the Colts in week 1 NFL betting action. The Chargers opened as -3 point favorites but the retirement of Andrew Luck caused that line to move to -6.5. The total is 44 at 5 dimes sportsbook.

The last time we saw the Colts they got crushed by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2nd round of the playoffs. The team went 10-6 last season and have high hopes this season led by Comeback Player of the Year Andrew Luck.

Indy was 11-6-1 ATS last season and in an interesting betting trend in their last 11 Week 1 games they only covered the spread once.

The Chargers were 12-4 last season and also lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs falling to the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots. They had a solid campaign even though some key guys missed time with injuries and the Bolts have legit Super Bowl aspirations.

L.A. was 10-8 ATS last season, but they have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games.

In the last nine games between these teams the Chargers are 7-2 ATS.

Luck Shocks NFL and Retires

 After a couple of seasons dealing with a shoulder injury Andrew Luck was big-time last season passing for over 4,500 yards and his line was great only allowing 12 sacks. But Luck shocked the football world by retiring last week. The new man on campus is Jacoby Brissett.

The defense for the Colts ranked a respectable 11th in the league last season and they did not make many moves in the off-season on that side of the ball. Their pass D ranked 16th and you can bet that unit will be tested in this season opener facing Phillip Rivers.

 Standing Pat

 Like the Colts the Chargers did not make any big moves in the off-season. Rivers passed for 4,038 yards and Keenan Allen was healthy and had a big season with nearly 1,200 receiving yards. Melvin Gordan rushed for 885 yards despite missing four games due to injury and LB Joey Bosa also had trouble staying on the field.

The Chargers are very balanced, and the team ranked 9th in the league last season on defense. Bosa and Melvin Ingram combined for 12 sacks last season.

 Predicting the Game

 The oddsmakers and betting market in general are telling us that Andrew Luck was worth about 4 points. The Chargers were -3 and are now -6.5, though at one point it was -7.

The knee jerk reaction would be to assume the Colts season is over before it begins and that their success was entirely dependent on Andrew Luck.

More likely, you’ll see the team rally around Brissett and step it up a notch. They have a respectable defense and let’s not forget that the Chargers had been preparing for Luck. They now face a completely different style QB, one that can do something Luck couldn’t, and that’s run.

We’ll go against the public here and grab the extra value.

 Our Pick: Colts +6.5