Cowboys vs. Bears – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/5/19

bears free pick
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears – Week 14 NFL Betting Analysis

Dallas Cowboys (6-6 7-5 ATS) at Chicago Bears (6-6 3-9 ATS)

This Thursday in an NFC showdown the slumping Dallas Cowboys head to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears where they are a 3-point road favorite. The total for this game sits at 43.

As of Monday, the line and total for this game have not changed since opening.

While both of these teams are 6-6 the Cowboys are in a much better position. They still are in the lead over the 5-7 Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. However, the Bears need a miracle to make the playoffs being a few games out of the last Wild Card and also a few games back in the NFC North.

The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games and in their last game on Thanksgiving in their house, they lost to the Buffalo Bills 26-15.

The Bears also played on turkey day in Detroit beating the Lions 24-20 and they have won two in a row and three of their last four games.

These teams have not met since the 2016 season.

The Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Thursday night games and the Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday night games.

Offensive Issues

In losing their last two games the Cowboys’ offense has struggled only totaling 24 points.

Dak Prescott passed for 355 yards with two TD and one INT in the 26-15 loss to Buffalo but a lot of those yards came in garbage time. Dallas was up 7-0 in the Buffalo game and then were outscored 23-0 in the next two quarters.

The Cowboys need to avoid getting down in this game and they have to get back to their bread-and-butter, which is getting Ezekiel Elliot the ball. He has not topped 86 rushing yards in his last four games and in the loss to Buffalo he had 71 rushing yards with 30 coming on one run.

Zeke needs to get his touches in this game and America’s Team needs to establish the run early.

Dallas will be facing a Chicago defense that ranks ninth against the pass and eighth against the run. Their pass defense has been an issue and in their last game against Detroit they were facing their 3rd string QB in David Blough and they allowed him to pass for 280 yards with two TD and one pick.

Trubisky Comes Up Big

Mitchell Trubisky has taken heat all season as the Bears QB and with good reason ranking 29th in the league in QBR and he only has 13 TD and 7 INT. However, he stepped up in the win over the Lions in the last game passing for 338 yards with three TD and one INT.

In the Detroit game, Anthony Miller led the Bears with 140 receiving yards and Allen Robinson II had 86 receiving yards. Robinson II has at least 86 receiving yards in two straight games and in three of his last four and in the game before the Lions win he had a career-high 131 receiving yards.

Chicago has not helped Trubisky out much with a run game that only ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game. However, David Montgomery rushed for 75 yards averaging a legit 4.7 yards per carry in the win over Detroit while totaling 53 rushing yards in his previous two games.

The Dallas defense ranks 8th in the league against the pass and 16th against the run.

Our Prediction

The Bears have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games. On top of that they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

I am not going to lie I am far from a Cowboys’ fan, but I think they will bounce back in this game. There will be a heavy dose of Zeke in this game, as Elliot will get a lot of touches. He will wear down the Bears’ defense and Prescott will have a good game and Dallas will win and cover even on the road.

PICK: Cowboys -3

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