Eagles vs. Dolphins – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/1/19

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dolphins pick
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins – Week 13 NFL Betting Analysis

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6 4-7 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (2-9 5-6 ATS)

The Philadelphia Eagles are in desperation mode, as they head to South Beach to take on the Miami Dolphins where they are a 10-point favorite with a total sitting at 45.

The public has really been backing the Eagles in this non-conference matchup, as they opened as a 6-point favorite and as of Thursday morning they are a 10-point favorite.

The Eagles have lost two in a row and with their last loss, they fell below .500 on the season. Carson Wentz has regressed this season and the team has major issues on both sides of the ball. The Wild Card looks out of the picture and for the Eagles to get back to the playoffs they will have to win the NFC East where they trail the 6-5 Dallas Cowboys, who they face in their 2nd to last game.

The Dolphins have been beaten badly after winning their first two games of the season. They have given up 37 and 41 points, respectively, in their last two games.

These teams have not met since the 2015 season.

The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six games facing the Dolphins.

Offense has been Stagnant

In the Eagles last two games their defense has played well while the same cannot be said about their offense totaling 19 points.

Carson Wentz has not had a good WR corps on the season, but he has not played well and in the last two games he has two touchdowns and two interceptions, and he has been sacked 12 times in his last three games.

TE Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in receiving yards while Alshon Jeffery only has 353 yards and DeSean Jackson has only played in three games this season.

Jordan Howard has missed the last two games with a should injury and is questionable for this game and while he has not had a great first season with the Eagles he played well in his last two games totaling 178 rushing yards with two TD.

Miles Sanders has been the lead RB in the last two games and after a tough first one, he rushed for 63 yards averaging 5.3 yards per carry in the Eagles last game, which was a 17-9 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Wentz and the Philly offense has struggled in the last couple of games but at least in this game gets to face a Miami defense that has been torched in their last two games and only ranks 22nd in the league against the pass and 31st against the run.

Defense Falters

The Dolphins had won two in a row before their defense has faltered losing their last two games. In their last game they lost to the Cleveland Browns 41-24 where they were outscored 28-3 in the first half and were outgained 467 yards to 284 yards.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has not shown much Fitz-magic as of late and in the loss to the Browns he passed for 214 yards with two TD and two INT. WR Devante Parker has totaled 226 receiving yards in the last two games and he has been one of the few bright spots on offense.

Miami ranks dead last in the league averaging 63.2 rushing yards per game and their lead rusher is not on the team any longer facing domestic violence charges. I mean Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing in the loss to Cleveland and the team simply has few options for running the ball.

As stated earlier, the Eagles have played good D in their last two games and on the season they rank 12th in the league in pass defense and 5th in run defense.

Our Prediction

The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games.

In this non-conference game, the Eagles will play good D yet again but this time they will get the win and cover the spread with a bounce-back from Wentz.

 PICK: Eagles -10