Packers at Cowboys Free NFL Pick with Analysis – 10/6/19

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Both of these teams are coming off their first loss of the season in their last game and in this one in the Lone Star State the Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite with a total sitting at 46.5.

The Public has been backing the Packers in this game, as they opened as 4.5-point underdogs and are now 3.5-point dogs as of Wednesday morning.

Both the Packers and the Cowboys are coming off losses, as the Packers lost at home to the Philadelphia Eagles 34-27 and the Cowboys lost on the road to the Saints 12-10.

These teams have not faced each other since the 2017 season.

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these NFC teams.

Can’t Get it Done in the Red Zone

In their loss to the Eagles in their last game they outgained them 491 yards to 336 yards, but they repeatedly came up short in the red zone and on top of that gave up 176 rushing yards.

Aaron Rodgers did his part in the last game passing for 422 yards with two TD and one INT and the pick was a costly one with less than a minute remaining and in the red zone. Davante Adams led the team with 180 receiving yards, but the run game only helped out with 77 rushing yards.

The Packers have tried to establish the run this season but have not had much luck and in the loss to Philly Rodgers led the way with 46 yards while RB Aaron Jones only had 21 rushing yards. Jones leads the team with 196 yards and fellow RB Jamaal Williams was injured in the loss to the Eagles and is questionable for this big game.

Dallas’ defense has been balanced and solid this season and even in losing their last game to the Saints they only gave up 12 points.

Elliot is Stuffed

After rushing for over 100 yards in two straight games Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliot only rushed for 35 yards in the last game averaging a paltry 1.9 yards per carry.

Dak Prescott also did not have the best of games against the Saints connecting on 22 of 33 passes for 223 yards with no TD and one INT. Amari Cooper has not had a big game since the season opener and he and Prescott have to get on the same page.

The Cowboys will likely follow the Eagles game-plan for last week running early and often. Why not? The Packers have the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense but their run defense only ranks 26th.

Our Prediction

The Packers are only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games while the Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.

The Cowboys three wins this season have come facing teams that only have a combined two wins, both by the Giants, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last four games facing a team with a winning record.

The Packers have played the tougher schedule, but they may be in trouble. Their run defense was really exposed in the loss to the Eagles and the Cowboys will jump on that with Elliot, who will bounce back and have a big game. Green Bay will not get blown out because Rodgers will have a big game, but Dallas will still win and cover the spread.

PICK: Cowboys -3.5