The Colts are coming off a rather surprising loss at home in their last game against the Oakland Raiders and they head to Kansas City to face the undefeated Chiefs, who are a big 11-point favorite. The total for this AFC matchup sits at 56.5.
Even with the big spread the public has backed the Chiefs, as they opened as a 9.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are an 11-point favorite.
In their last game the Colts lost to the Raiders 31-24 where they allowed Oakland to score a TD on three of their first four possessions. They came back in the game but threw a pick-six with just over two minutes left icing the game for the Raiders.
The Chiefs had their toughest test of the season in their last game narrowly beating the Detroit Lions on the road 34-30. Patrick Mahomes leads the league in passing yards and TD and leads a KC offense that ranks first in passing yards per game and points per game.
These teams met last season in the playoffs at Kansas City where the Chiefs beat the Colts 31-13. The Colts did not cover in that game, but they have covered in seven of their last nine games against the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Run Game Hurts
In the loss to the Raiders in their last game they not only got off to a slow start but only had 81 rushing yards while they allowed Oakland to rush for 188 yards.
Jacoby Brissett passed for 265 yards in the loss to the Raiders with three TD but the one late picked sealed the Colts fate. He was also the 2nd leading rusher with 19 yards while Maron Mack led the team with only 39 yards averaging 3.5 yards per carry.
The run game is the strength of the Colts offense, as they rank 7th in the league in rushing yards per game and only 25th in passing yards per game. Mack went off in Week 1 rushing for 174 yards and in the last three games he has rushed for 164 yards.
Mack is listed as questionable for this game with an ankle injury and if he cannot go it will be a big blow. He leads the Colts with 338 rushing yards and Jordan Wilkins ranks 2nd on the team with only 97 yards with 55 of them coming on one run.
The Colts have not played a tough schedule, as they have not faced one team that currently has a winning record.
The Kansas City defense is a work in progress with all the new faces on that side of the ball and this season they rank 20th in the league in both pass and run defense.
Escaping with a Win
In their 34-30 win over the Lions the Chiefs were outgained 447 to 438 yards and had more turnovers (3-2) but scored the game winning TD with only 23 seconds left ot escape with a win.
Mahomes passed for 315 yards but did not have a TD and was not picked off. Travis Kelse led four players that had at least 43 receiving yards and while star WR Tyreek Hill returned to practice this week he is still unlikely to play in this game.
While the Chiefs rushed for 123 yards in the Lions game two runs were for 64 yards with LeSean McCoy having a 39-yard run while only gaining 17 yards on his other 10 carries. KC only ranks 20th in the league in rushing yards per game and McCoy has some big runs but has struggled most of the season.
The Chiefs have a slew of weapons even without Hill and they will be facing a Indianapolis defense that ranks 13th in the league against the pass and 7th against the run.
Not only are the Colts 8-1 ATS in their last nine games facing a team with a winning record but are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
The Colts have been up and down this season and even facing a suspect Kansas City defense this will be a down game for them. They have no answer for Mahomes, who will have another big game leading the Chiefs to a win and they will also cover at home giving 11 points.
PICK: Chiefs -11