Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans – Week 12 NFL Betting Analysis
Indianapolis Colts (6-4 5-4-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (6-4 5-5 ATS)
The Colts head to the Lone Star State as a 3.5-point underdog facing a Texans team that was throttled in their last game. The total for this AFC South matchup sits at 45,5.
The public has backed the Colts already, big time, in this division matchup, as they opened as a 5.5-point underdog and as of Monday are a 3.5-point dog.
The AFC South is wide open, as the Texans and Colts are both 6-4, the Tennessee Titans are 5-5, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-6.
In their last game, the Colts snapped their two-game losing streak with a 33-13 win over the Jags while the Texans lost to the Baltimore Ravens 41-7, which snapped their two-game win streak.
The winner of this game has the clear cut road to the division title, especially considering these teams met a few weeks back in Indy where the Colts beat the Texans 30-23.
The Colts rank 4th in the league in rushing yards but their lead RB in Marlon Mack is out for this game for a few of them after recently suffering a broken hand.
Not only have the Colts covered the spread in five of their last six games facing the Texans but have an ATS record of 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games facing them in Houston.
Run Game Kills It
In the Colts win over the Jags in their last game, they not only killed it on the ground rushing for 264 yards but held Jax to only 29 rushing yards.
Mack rushed for 109 yards before the hand injury and Jonathan Williams rushed for 116 yards and will take the majority of the snaps in this game. Williams came into the game with a grand total of one rushing yard and the team’s 2nd leading rusher in Jordan Wilkins is out with an injury.
Jacoby Brissett came back after missing a game with an injury and in the win over Jax he passed for 148 yards with a TD and an INT. He got a lot of help from the run game in the win over the Jags and he hopes Williams can have another big game on the ground, so he does not have to carry the team with his arm. However, in the earlier win over Houston this season he passed for a career-high four TD.
The Texans gave up nearly 500 yards in their last game and played bad run defense and on the season, they rank 29th in the league in pass defense and 13th in run defense.
A Game to Forget About
The Texans need to forget about their bad loss to the Ravens un their last game where they were outgained by 259 yards (491-232) and had two turnovers while not forcing any.
Deshawn Watson was only 18/29 for 169 yards with no TD and a pick being sacked six times in the loss to the Ravens. He had passed for five TD and no INT in his previous two games.
Carlos Hyde rushed for 65 yards with a 41-yard scamper and Duke Johnson rushed for 40 yards. The ground game was taken out of the picture when the Texans were down big and Watson had to shoulder the load to attempt a comeback.
Houston will be facing an Indy defense that I balanced and ranks 12th in the NFL in pass defense and 9th in run defense.
The Colts have covered the spread in their last five games facing teams from the AFC South.
The Texans have failed to cover in four of their last five home games.
While the betting trends point to the Colts in this game and the Texans were crushed in their last game Houston is still the pick. I think the Colts will really miss Mack and Watson will have a big game for the Texans, who will win this AFC South matchup at home on Thursday night and they will cover as well.
PICK: Texans -3.5