Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers – Week 4 MNF Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-3 1-2 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (3-0 3-0 ATS)

The bungling and winless Atlanta Falcons head to Lambeau Field on Monday night to take on the unbeaten Green Bay Packers, who have been impressive early I the season. The Packers are a 7.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at -56.5.

Not surprisingly the public has backed the Packers, as they opened as a 5-point favorite, and as of Wednesday are a 7.5-point favorite.

The Falcons have blown huge leads in all of their games and were up 16 points in the fourth quarter in their last game and ended up losing 30-26 to the Chicago Bears. The team has rallied behind head coach Dan Quinn, but he has to be on the hot seat after continuing to fall apart late in games.

The Packers are 3-0 and in their last game beat the New Orleans Saints 37-30 in the Big Easy. Their tackling was terrible in their last game and while the defense is giving up an average of 28.3 ppg, Aaron Rodgers has been awesome and Green Bay leads the NFL averaging 40.7 ppg.

The Falcons have been scoring points, but the D has let them down, especially late in games, and ranks dead last giving up an average of 36 ppg.

These teams met last in the 2018 season when the Packers beat the Falcons 34-20.

The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games facing the Packers in Green Bay.

Not Again

For the third straight game, the Falcons found a way to lose giving up a big fourth-quarter lead in the 30-26 loss to the Chicago Bears. Atlanta was outscored 20-0 in the fourth quarter and in the game were outgained 437-371.

Matt Ryan passed for 238 yards with a TD and a pick in the loss to Chicago. While he has seven TD and only two INT he has struggled in the second half of games this season.

Atlanta rushed for 144 yards in the loss to Chicago with Todd Gurley rushing for 80 yards, Brian Hill rushing for 56 yards, and each averaged over 5.7 yards per carry.

Calvin Ridley led Atlanta with 110 receiving yards in the last game and leads the team in receiving yards on the season. Star WR Julio Jones missed the Chicago game with a hamstring injury, has not practiced this week, and will be a game-time decision for the Monday night game.

Not only does the Falcons scoring defense rank last in the league but starting CB Darqueze Dennard was recently put on IR.

Good Thing For the Offense

The Packers’ solid start is attributed to the play of Aaron Rodgers and company while the defense has struggled. The D ranks 32nd in the NFL in yards allowed per play (6.6) and 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.88).

Overall, the team’s defense ranks 14th but that is because they have not been on the field much with the offense leading the league in time of possession.

Rodgers passed for 283 yards with three TD and no INT in the 37-30 win over the Saints. He has nine TD and no picks on the season and ranks second in the league in QBR.

Allen Lazzard led the Pack with 146 receiving yards after totaling 108 yards in his first two games. While Green Bay #1 WR Davante Adams missed the last game and he is listed as questionable for this game.

Aaron Jones ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards and in the win over the Saints he rushed for 69 yards and had 17 receiving yards.

Our Prediction

While the Falcons have covered the spread in their last five games as a road underdog the Packers have covered the spread in five of their last six home games.

The Packers’ offense is rolling and that will continue to be the case against the struggling Atlanta defense. Ryan and company will put up some points on the suspect Green Bay defense but Rodgers will come up big again on Monday night and lead the Packers to the W and they will also cover the spread in what will be a high scoring affair.

PICK: Packers -6