Baltimore Ravens (7-5 6-6 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (9-3 5-7 ATS)
In an AFC North matchup with big playoff implications on Monday night the Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are a slight 1-point betting favorite in this division matchup with a total of 46.5.
The public has backed the Browns in this one, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 1-point dog.
These division rivals met in the first game of the season in Baltimore where the Ravens laid a 38-6 beat down on the Browns.
The Ravens snapped their three-game losing streak with a 34-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys. They are currently on the outside of the playoff picture tied with the Las Vegas Raiders and one game back of the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins.
The Browns have won four in a row and they are coming off a big 41-35 win over the Tennessee Titans in their last game. They are in the playoff picture as a Wild Card team and have secured their first winning season since 2007.
Baker Mayfield came up big in the win over the Titans but the Browns are still led by a ground game that ranks second in the league in rushing yards per game.
The Ravens put up 34 points in the loss to Dallas but they have not been the dynamic team they were last season. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has not been nearly the player of last season and while Baltimore is the top rushing team in the NFL they rank dead last in passing yards per game.
The Ravens have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games facing the Browns.
Run Game Kills It
In the win over the Cowboys, the Ravens killed it on the ground to the tune of 294 rushing yards. Gus Edwards, Jackson, and J.K. Dobbins combined to rush for 266 yards and each averaged at last 6.5 yards per carry.
Jackson has 17 TD and 7 INT on the season and in the win over Dallas passed for only 107 yards with two TD and one INT. He has been picked off once in each of the last three games but has been running the ball well.
The Browns shut down Derrick Henry and the Titans’ run game in their last one and can they do it in this game? In the season-opener, they were crushed and while they defended the run well they gave up 270 passing yards and three TD.
Mayfield Goes Big
In the win over the Titans Baker Mayfield passed for 334 yards with four TD all of which came in the first half. He has six TD in his last two games and has not thrown a pick in five straight games. In the loss to the Ravens in the season-opener, he was picked off twice and only passed for 189 yards.
Nick Chubb paces the ground attack (799 yards 7 TD) and after three straight games of at least 114 rushing yards, he had 80 in the win over the Titans averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Mayfield has a good WR corps even without the injured Odell Beckham Jr., but the rushing attack will be key for the team. For the Browns to win they have to run the ball and Mayfield has to avoid the turnover.
Prediction
The Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and while the Browns are 9-3 and covered the spread in their last game they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
I look for the Browns to come out and play well in this game on both sides of the ball. They will lean on the run and be successful with it and Mayfield will avoid mistakes. Cleveland may give up a lot of rushing yards but they will keep Baltimore from making the big play. The Browns will avenge the blowout loss to the Ravens this season by winning at home and covering the short spread.
PICK: Browns +3