Denver Broncos (4-7 6-5 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-1 6-5 ATS)
The AFC West heats up on Sunday night primetime with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos. While the Broncos have all of their QB’s back after having none in their last game the Chiefs are still a huge 14-point betting favorite with the total sitting at 51.
Even with the big spread, the public has backed the Chiefs, as they opened as a 13-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 14-point favorite.
Because of COVID-19, the Broncos had no QB’s available in their last game, which was a lopsided 31-3 loss. all four of the QB’s were fined for not wearing masks at meetings but they are back and starter Drew Lock will get the nod in this division matchup.
The Chiefs have won six in a row and, pretty much, have the AFC West wrapped up. However, their last three games have been close and in that span have given up an average of 29.7 ppg. However, MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes guides the dynamic offense that ranks first in the league in passing yards per game and second in points per game.
The Chiefs’ defense may not be tested in this game facing a Denver offense that ranks third to last in the league averaging 19 ppg.
A few weeks back in Denver the Chiefs had no problem with the Broncos beating them 43-16. On top of that in the last 10 games between these teams, Kansas City has covered the spread nine times.
Can Lock Pull Off a Miracle?
Drew Lock is back after missing the last game but can the QB, who has gone through a sophomore slump pull off a miracle in Kansas City? After a promising rookie campaign, he has struggled big-time this season ranking 30th in QBR and has a less than stellar TD to INT ratio of 7:11.
In the last game Lock played the Broncos beat the Miami Dolphins but the defense was the main reason. He did not have a TD in the game and was picked off and in his last five games has nine INT.
Denver needs to forget about the last game where they only gained 112 yards. 100 of those came on the ground and Melvin Gordon III (554 yards 6 TD) and Phillip Lindsay (414 yards 1 TD) combined for 147 rushing yards in the first matchup with the Chiefs and the Broncos still were crushed. In that game Lock threw two picks and no TD.
Obviously, turnovers are key and that was no more evident than in the first matchup of these teams this season. The Chiefs blew out the Broncos even though they were outgained 411 yards to 286 yards.
The King of the Hill
While the Pittsburgh Steelers are undefeated the Chiefs are seen as the team to beat and they have the best odds to win the Super Bowl.
Mahomes is putting up MVP numbers and it helps he has a great supporting cast and a legit run game. He did not have to have a big game in the earlier win over Denver with the Broncos many turnovers. Can the Broncos stop him? They also have to figure out a way to contain WR Tyreek Hill, who had 269 receiving yards and three TD in the last game with over 200 of those yards coming in the first quarter.
Denver’s strength on defense is against the pass and it is vital that Malik Reed and Bradley Chubb, who have combined for 14 sacks, put pressure on Mahomes.
Prediction
The Broncos are coming off a blowout loss and their starting QB is back under center but has been less than impressive this season. I see this game getting ugly quickly, as while the Chiefs have played three straight close games it will not be four in a row after this one. Even giving 14 points Kansas City is the pick, as they will win this Sunday night game in a blowout.
PICK: Chiefs -13.5