Buffalo Bills (8-3 6-5 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (5-6 5-6 ATS)
The Buffalo Bills are atop the AFC East and head to the desert to face the San Francisco 49ers, who are playing their home games in Arizona due to COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara county. The Bills are a slight 1-point favorite in this neutral site game with a total of 48.
The public has backed the 49ers in this non-conference game, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 1-point dog.
The Bills have won four of their last five games and have a one-game lead in the AFC East over the Miami Dolphins, who they face in the season finale. They won a sloppy last game but have a balanced team that ranks 10th in the league in ppg and 15th in points allowed per game.
The 49ers snapped their three-game losing streak in their last game to keep their playoff hopes alive. The team has struggled on both sides of the ball this season and starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo is out indefinitely.
The Bills are only 0-3-1 ATS in their last Monday night games while the 49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Monday night games.
Defense Saves the Day
In their last game, the Bills beat the L.A. Chargers 27-17 where they committed three straight turnovers in the fourth quarter, but only allowed three points off them.
Josh Allen has had a solid third season with over 3,000 passing yards with 22 TD and ranks sixth in QBR. However, he only passed for 157 yards in the win over the Chargers and in his last two games has three TD to go along with three INT. Still, he is the leader of the team and also ranks second on the team with 311 rushing yards.
After only rushing for 16 yards in two games Buffalo leading rusher Devin Singletary rushed for 82 yards averaging 7.2 yards per carry in the win over L.A.
The 49ers have a solid pass defense and their run D has been pretty good but the pass rush has not been there and that could be a big issue in this game.
Back in the Race
The 49ers beat the L.A. Rams 23-20 in their last game to stay in the playoff race and need a strong finish to get back to the post-season.
Nick Mullins will get the start under center and while he leads the 49ers in passing yards he has more INT (7) than TD (6) and has four picks to two TD in the last two games.
Raheem Mostert leads the 49ers in rushing yards and after missing more than a month with an injury he came back in the last game and rushed for 43 yards but only averaged 2.7 yards per carry. He Jerick McKinnon and jeff Wilson Jr. have to get it done in this game, as if Mullins have to do it all the team will be in trouble.
Buffalo is giving up an average of nearly 130 rushing yards per game and their run D will be vital in this game.
Prediction
The Bills had failed to cover the spread in four straight facing losing teams before doing so in their win over the Chargers last week. The 49ers covered the spread as a 5-point underdog in the win over the Rams while failing to cover in their previous three games.
I have to go with the Bills in this game. They were sloppy in their last game but will clean it up in this one. I see the 49ers putting up a fight and this Monday night matchup will be close but Buffalo will get the win and cover and put the 49ers’ playoff hopes in jeopardy.
PICK: Bills +1