New England Patriots (5-6 5-6 ATS) at L.A. Chargers (3-8 5-6 ATS)
The New England Patriots saved their season with a big win in their last game and head to the left coast to face an L.A. Chargers team that keeps finding different ways to lose. This game is a PICK with the total sitting at 47.
The public has backed the Pats in this AFC matchup, as the Chargers opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and as of Wednesday, the game is a PICK.
The Pats beat the Arizona Cardinals in their last game 20-17, which was their third win in four games. The team has struggled on both sides of the ball on the season but they do rank fifth in the league in rushing yards per game.
The Chargers are coming off yet another loss and while they have been in many games they have kept losing. While it looks like they have found their QB of the future in Justin Herbert this season has been seen as a major disappointment and head coach Anthony Lynn may be on the hot season.
In the three Chargers wins their opponents have combined for a grand total of seven wins. On the other side of the coin, the two wins in the last three games for the Pats have come against teams that are in the playoff hunt over .500.
These teams have not met since the 2018 playoffs when the Patriots beat the Chargers en route to another Super Bowl win.
The Pats have covered the spread in their last five games facing the Chargers.
A Win is a Win
While the Pats’ win over the Cardinals was not pretty only gaining a total of 179 yards the win was a huge one. Nick Folk kicked a 50-yard field goal as time expired and while the defense gave up 160 rushing yards they shut down Kyler Murray only giving up 60 passing yards.
Cam Newton did rush for 46 yards but only passed for 84 yards with no TD and two INT and was sacked three times. The former MVP only has four TD and nine picks on the season only has two TD in his last seven games and ranks 28th in the league in QBR.
Damien Harris has only totaled 90 rushing yards in the last two games, where he failed to average over four yards per carry in both, after two of three games rushing for at least 102 yards.
The Chargers should get a heavy dose of the run in this game and on the season they have given up an average of 120.5 rushing yards per game. They have to defend the run better than in their last game where they gave up 172 yards.
Have to Convert
In their last game, the Chargers lost to the Buffalo Bills 27-17 where they forced three fourth-quarter turnovers but they only led to three points. L.A. had more yards (367 to 332) but did not defend the run well and simply could not convert turnovers into points.
Herbert passed for 316 yards with a TD and an INT and on the season the likely Rookie of the Year has passed for 3,015 yards with 23 TD and seven INT.
In the loss to Buffalo Austin Ekeler only rushed for 41 yards averaging 3.1 yards per carry but led three players with at least 63 receiving yards with 85 on 11 catches.
Joey Bosa had three sacks in the loss to Buffalo but the Chargers only have 20 on the season. Getting in the backfield and pressuring Newton will be key for them, as if they give up a ton of rushing yards again they will likely lose again.
Prediction
The Pats are only 1-4 ATS in their last five road games but they will be facing a Chargers’ team that is 1-4 ATS in their last five games facing a team with a losing record.
I like Herbert but the Chargers have a lot of other issues and that has been apparent this season. They just cannot seem to put a full game together and I see that happening again. I look for Newton to bounce back and have a good game and for the Pats to run the ball well. New England will get the W and stay in the playoff picture sending the Bolts to their ninth loss of the season.
PICK: Patriots +1.5