Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2 4-3 ATS) at New York Giants (1-6 4-3 ATS)
In a Monday night game where the oddsmakers are not giving the home team much of a chance the New York Giants host the streaking Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are a big 10.5-point road favorite with the total sitting at 46.
Not surprisingly the public has backed Tampa in this NFC matchup, as they opened as an 8.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 10.5-point favorite.
The Bucs have won two in a row and five of their last six games and their last two games have been blowouts. Tom Brady has been awesome in the last two games, which both came against teams that came into the game with a winning record in the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders.
The Giants have lost their star RB and the team only has one win but they are still in the NFC East race. They had a chance in their last game, which was a 22-21 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, who are in first place in the division at 2-4-1.
New York’s offense has been bad on the season ranking second to last in the NFL in ppg, third to last in passing yards per game, and 27th in rushing yards per game.
The Bucs have been balanced on the season playing solid defense and they are the third highest-scoring team in the league.
While the G-Men have their issues they are 4-3 ATS this season and have covered the spread in four of their last five games as an underdog.
The GOAT Keeps Rolling
In the Bucs last game they beat the Las Vegas Raiders 45-20 where Tom Brady passed for 369 yards with four TD and no INT. Brady ranks sixth in the league in passing yards and has 18 TD and only four INT on the season.
Brady has a ton of weapons around him and the team picked up another one recently signing Antonio Brown. WR Chris Goodwin is out for this game with a finger injury but the Giants’ secondary still has to contend with Scotty Miller, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski.
After three straight games of 100+ rushing yards, Ronald Jones did not have a good game against the Raiders, but Leonard Fournette stepped up with 50 rushing yards on 11 carries.
While Brady and the Tampa D have gotten a lot of press the unsung hero has been the offensive line. They have played great and have not given up a sack in three of their last four games including the last two. Getting to Brady is the key to beating the Bucs and the Giants have had a pretty good pass rush on the season with 18 sacks.
Letting It Get Away
In the Giants one-point loss to the Eagles in their last game, they had a 21-10 lead in the fourth quarter but could not get it done. They almost got the W even though they had three turnovers and forced only one and were outgained 442 yards to 325 yards.
Daniel Jones passed for 187 yards with a TD in the loss to the Eagles but was picked off and lost a fumble. Jones has not looked good this season with five TD and seven picks and he has also lost five fumbles.
Darius Slayton (429 yards) is the only player that has over 225 receiving yards and the team has really missed Saquon Barkley, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Jones leads the team in rushing by a wide margin.
The one thing the Giants must do in this game is run the ball. They did have 160 rushing yards in the loss to the Eagles but half of them came on an 80-yard run from Jones where he was going in for a TD but fell down before reaching the end zone with nobody touching him. Yeah, it has been that kind of season for the Giants.
The Giants are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games and the Bucs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.
Even in New York and on Monday night the oddsmakers were generous to the Giants. I think Brady will light them up and the Tampa D will stuff Jones and the New York offense. This game will get ugly quick, as the Bucs will lay a beat down on the G-Men easily winning and covering the double-digit spread.
PICK: Buccaneers -12.5