Dallas Cowboys (2-5 0-7 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1 2-5 ATS)
In a Sunday night, NFC East matchup where nothing is at stake except first place in the division the Philadelphia Eagles hosts the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles are a big 11-point home betting favorite with the total sitting at 43.
To say the public has backed Philly in this division rivalry game would be an understatement. The Eagles opened as a 3.5-point favorite and as of Thursday are an 8.5-point favorite.
Both teams have been major disappointments this season but both have been decimated by injuries. How bad has it been for each team? Well, the Eagles are without their two starting WR’s, two starting TE’s, and most of their offensive line. For the Cowboy obviously the big loss is QB Dak Prescott but it is not just him, as just over 40% of the team’s payroll is injured.
These teams split the two games facing each other last season with each winning at home.
The Cowboys are down to their third-string QB in rookie Ben DiNucci from James Madison. However, with the exception of the last game, which was a bad 25-3 loss to the Washington Football Team, the D has been the killer ranking dead last in the league giving up an average of 34.7 ppg.
The Eagles, who are in first place in the division at 2-4-1, have had issues on both sides of the ball but the team is coming off a win.
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games facing the Eagles and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games facing them in Philly.
First Time in Primetime
DeNucci will get his first career start in this primetime Sunday night game. When he took over for an injured Andy Dalton in the loss to Washington in the last game he was 2 for 3 for 39 yards with a 32-yard pass competition but nearly lost two fumbles.
America’s Team has the talent on the outside with the likes of CeeDee Lamb. Michael Gallup, and Amari Cooper, who leads the team with 583 receiving yards.
Ezekiel Elliot has not had a good season so far and while rushing for 458 yards, which is ninth in the league, he has not rushed for over 54 yards in four of his last five games including his last two. In the loss to Washington, he rushed for 45 yards and only averaged 3.8 yards per carry.
With rookie DeNucci getting the start look for Dallas to lean heavily on Elliot. He will be facing an Eagles’ run D that has struggled on the season and has given up an average of 130.4 rushing yards per game.
Wentz Brings Em’ Back
In the Eagles last game they beat the New York Giants 22-21 where Carson Wentz brought them back from a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit with two passing TD.
The Eagles only won by a point even though they outgained the Giants 442 yards to 325 yards and forced three turnovers only committing one.
Philly gave up 160 rushing yards to the Giants and their run D will get a heavy dose of Elliot in this game.
Boston Scott is the lead back with starter Miles Sanders injured and while he caught a fourth-quarter TD in the win over the Giants he only rushed for 46 yards averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
The Eagles WR corps are mostly injured and they have been bringing guys off the practice squad. In the New York game, Richard Rogers and Travis Fulgham combined for 158 receiving yards.
Prediction
The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games. However, the Cowboys have failed to cover in all seven games this season.
Ok, so the Cowboys are a mess, down to their third-string QB, and have failed to cover the spread in any game this season. Still, they face an Eagles team that has been killed by injuries and only beat the woeful Giants by one point in their last game. I see the Eagles getting the W in this game, but DeNucci and Elliot will play well and keep it close. That is why the Cowboys are the pick in this game to cover for the first time this season.
PICK: Cowboys +11