Chargers vs. Saints Week 5 MNF Pick ATS – 10/12/20

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L.A. Chargers (1-3 3-1 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (2-2 2-2 ATS)

The Chargers have lost three in a row and head to the Big Easy on Monday night to face a Saints team that got to the .500 mark with a win in their last game. The Saints are a 7 -point home favorite with a total of 50. at betonline and BetAnySports.

While the Chargers have lost three straight the games were close, and all of the teams are at least .500. The team may have found their QB of the future, as Justin Herbert has played well since becoming the starter. He will likely get the start in this game with Tyrod Taylor out indefinitely with a lung injury.

The Saints moved to 2-2 on the season with a 35-29 win over the Lions in their last game. While many have said Drew Brees’ play is falling off he ranks fifth in the league in QBR and leads a team that is tied for fifth in ppg. The defense has been the main issue ranking 24th in the league giving up an average of 30.8 ppg.

The Chargers lost their third in a row in their last game to the Tampa Bay Bucs where they could not hold onto a 17-point lead. The team was outscored 24-7 in the second half and Herbert threw a costly pick late in the game.

L.A.’s defense has been pretty good on the season but even in putting up 31 points in their last game, they are only averaging 20.8 ppg.

These teams have not met since the 2016 season.

D Lets Bolts Down

While the Chargers played pretty good defense in the first half of their 38-31 loss to the Bucs and had a pick-6 they were torched in the second half and gave up 484 yards.

Herbert had the late INT, but it was his only one of the game, and passed for 290 yards with three TD. He has passed for at least 290 yards in his three starts and has five TD and three INT.

Herbert got little help from the run game in the loss to Tampa Bay with the Chargers only rushing for 46 yards. He led the team with only 14 rushing yards and lead RB Austin Ekler was injured early and is expected to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury.

Rookie Joshua Kelly will be the lead back in this game and while he has 174 rushing yards on the season he had a grand total of seven yards on nine carries in the loss to the Bucs.

Herbert has some legit targets in WR Keenan Allen (327 receiving yards) and TE Hunter Henry (245 receiving yards), but Ekler is the third leading target and out and deep threat Mike Williams is listed as questionable for the game.

Roaring Back

In the Saints last game beating the Lions 35-29 the team was down 14 points and then roared back with 35 unanswered points. The team was without six starters and only scored seven points in the second half, but still got the W.

The Saints outgained the Lions by over 100 yards (392-281) and Drew Brees passed for 248 yards with two TD and one INT. Brees has passed for five TD and one INT in his last three games.

New Orleans rushed for 164 yards in the win over Detroit with Alvin Kamara rushing for 83 yards and Latavius Murray chiming in for 64 yards.

Emmanuel Sanders led the Saints in the win over the Lions with 93 receiving yards and Tre’Quan Smith had 54 receiving yards and two TD on only four catches. Star WR Michael Thomas, who led the league in receiving yards last season, is listed as questionable in this game and he has not played since Week 1.

Our Prediction

The Chargers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games while the Saints are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

The Chargers have played some good teams in their three-game losing streak, which began with losing to the defending champion Chiefs in OT. Herbert has been solid but the loss of Ekler is a big one. I look for Brees to play well and for Kamara to have a big game. Still, Herbert will play well again keeping the Chargers close, which is why they are the pick to cover in this Monday Night matchup.

 PICK: Chargers +7

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