Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets – Week 4 NFL Pick ATS – 10/1/20

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Jets Predictions
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Denver Broncos (0-3 2-1 ATS) at New York Jets (0-3 ATS)

On Thursday night in a battle between winless teams that were each blown out in their last game the New York Jets host the Denver Broncos. Even at home and facing a fellow winless team the Jets are a -1 point fav with the total sitting at 40.

The Broncos have been ravaged by injuries early in the season and after two close losses in their last game, they fell to 0-3 with a 28-10 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Drew Lock has an injured shoulder and will not play in this game with Brett Rypien  getting the call.

Denver has not played an easy schedule and while their defense has not been terrible their offense has averaged 15 ppg.

The Jets have also played a pretty tough early schedule, but they have lost all their of their games by double digits. On top of that they have been outscored 77-20 in their last two games.

Sam Darnold’s play (3 TD 4 INT 30th in QBR) has made the fans begin the tank-for-Trevor-Lawrence chant. After only three games head coach Adam Gase is on the hot seat.

These teams met last in the 2018 season when the Jets beat the Broncos 34-16.

The Broncos have covered the spread in two of their three games while the Jets have failed to cover in any of their games.

New York lost to the Indianapolis Colts 36-7 in their last game where they were shut out for the final three quarters.

The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games against the Broncos but did cover the last time facing them.

Offensive Woes

The Broncos’ offense has struggled all season and in the 28-10 loss to the Bucs they only totaled 226 yards. The team only rushed for a grand total of 42 yards and were 5/14 on third down.

Jeff Driskel passed for 176 yards with a TD and an INT and Brett Rypien came in late and passed for 53 yards in the loss to Tampa Bay.

Driskel has not looked bad but he has not lit it up either and it has not helped that in the two games taking over for the injured Lock he has been sacked 11 times.

Melvin Gordan III rushed for only 26 yards in the loss to the Bucs and in his last two games has failed to average over 3.7 yards per carry.

Courtland Sutton had over 1,100 receiving yards last season and is on IR with a knee injury.

While giving up a lot of points the Jets’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed. Still, they gave up 353 yards including 119 rushing yards in the loss to the Colts in their last game, so there is hope for the Denver offense in this Thursday night affair.

Darnold Has to Bounce Back

Sam Darnold has regressed this season after a pretty good 2019 campaign and he needs to get his mojo back. He has to forget about the loss to the Colts where he was terrible. He passed for 168 yards and a TD but had three picks, two of which were pick-6’s and the other when the Jets were in the red zone.

The Jets have a depleted WR corps with one on IR and two out indefinitely. On top of that Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman are both listed as questionable for the Thursday night game with injuries.

The ageless Frank Gore leads the Jets with 144 rushing yards but is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and his longest run of the season is only 13 yards.

Marcus Maye and Quinnen Williams each have two sacks on the season, and it is key they get to Driskel, who is playing behind a line that has been terrible this season.

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. On the other side of the coin, the Jets are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

Jason’s Prediction

Both teams have been bitten by the injury bug early in the season and each team is shorthanded. Darnold is coming off one of the worst games of his career.

Denver has not played bad defense and they will keep the Jets’ offense in check. They will not light up the scoreboard with a less than dynamic offense, but they will move the chains in this game. This Thursday night matchup will be a low scoring affair that the Broncos will win and also cover sending the hapless Jets to 0-4.

PICK: Broncos +1

 

Bettorsworld’s Pick

We’re going to go against Jason here. With two winless teams facing off, this game is essentially a must win for both. Not too many NFL teams recover from an 0-4 start.

This games opened Denver -2 and went as high as -3. Much of the reason for the line move is the question marks at QB for the Broncos.

Nothing strong here but we’ll side with the home team Jets to grab their first win of the season with Sam Darnold bouncing back after one of his worst games.

Jets -1