North Carolina at Boston College Free College Football Pick – 10/3/20

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north carolina tar heels pick
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North Carolina hasn’t played since luckily covering against Syracuse back on Sept. 12, something that would never happen if COVID-19 wasn’t a thing.

While Boston College has had two games, both wins, since UNC last played, there’s still little known about them. The Tar Heels opened as -11.5 point road favorites (now -14) with an over/under of 54.5 at MyBookie.

This spread is partly based off the hype that UNC had before the season, as they were projected to be one of the top teams in the ACC. That kind of ended when they were up just 10-6 going into the fourth quarter against Syracuse.

Sure, they managed three late touchdowns and held the Orange to 202 total yards, but it’s hard to ignore the first three quarters.

BC Needed Late Score to Beat Texas St

It’s maybe been harder to decipher things for Boston College because it beat Duke 26-6 and then needed 10 points in the final minute to beat Texas State 24-21 last week.

But diving into the numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Eagles failed to score 10 points in this matchup.

After UNC’s dominant defensive performance in the opener, it got to watch BC’s offense the last two weeks, giving them about three weeks to prepare for this matchup.

Even worse for the Eagles is that their ground game doesn’t look as good under new head coach Jeff Hafley, averaging 2.5 yards per carry through two games.

Running back David Bailey has been limited to 3.2 ypc, while quarterback Phil Jurkovec is the only other player with more than 25 yards. Jurkovec, a Notre Dame transfer, is the main reason BC is undefeated, throwing for 510 yards on 8.4 yards per attempt. Even then, most of those positive numbers came against Duke.

BC Defense Looking Weak

On the other side of the ball, it’s hard to tell where BC is at because it hasn’t played an above average offense. Duke ran for 4.6 yards per carry in the first game and then Texas State’s QB averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt.

Despite that disappointing opener for the Tar Heels, it’ll be hard not to bet on them in this matchup, especially if the spread is less than two touchdowns. Sam Howell is still the best quarterback in this game after tossing 38 touchdowns last season.

Throw in top receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, in addition to running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, and their talent is hard to ignore in this spot.

After more than three weeks off, UNC coach Mack Brown will undoubtedly have his team ready in this spot. Boston College is undefeated, but it’s not like it showed anything over the top in those games.

The Heels are a better team on both sides of the ball and if they figure things out with some added practice time, this could be a huge win. Of course, they had plenty of time to figure things out before the opener and that didn’t start the way they hoped.

Our Pick

I’m of the belief that when two teams meet and one of them hasn’t taken the field for 3 weeks while the other played the past two weeks, the team that’s been playing has the advantage INITIALLY.

With the line move from -11.5 to -14, it’s also created some added value in the 1st quarter line and the 1st half line. Both of those lines involve key numbers.

We’re hoping NC shows a little rust early on and we’ll take BC +3.5 for the 1st quarter and BC +7 for the first half.

Lean towards NC for the game but the line move knocked us off any potential play.