Eagles vs. Steelers – Week 5 NFL Free Pick ATS – 10/11/20

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1 1-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0 2-1 ATS)

Bragging rights in Pennsylvania is up for grabs in this non-conference game where the undefeated Steelers host an Eagles team coming off their first win of the season. The Steelers are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 45.

While the total has gone down 2.5 points since opening the line of Pittsburgh -7 has not as of Tuesday.

The Eagles got a big win in their last game taking out the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers in their house beating them 25-20. The game vaulted the team to first place in the horrid NFC East where their tie helped them since the Cowboys and Redskins are 1-3 and the Giants are winless at 0-4.

The Steelers will be well-rested for this game, as their last one was postponed due to COVID-19 positive tests from the team they were scheduled to play in the Tennessee Titans.

While Pittsburgh is undefeated it would be an understatement to say they have played a weak schedule, as the three teams they have beaten have combined for one win. On top of that, all of the wins by the Steelers were close ones.

These teams have not met since the 2016 season.

The Eagles have covered the spread in six of their last eight games as a road underdog while the Steelers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite.

A Win is a Win

The Eagles beat the 49ers on Monday night and while they forced three turnovers and only committed one they were outgained 417 yards to 267 yards.

Carson Wentz had his best game of the season in the SF win passing for 193 yards with a TD and an INT with a QBR of 73.7. In his previous three games he had three TD and six picks and failed to have a QBR over 53,1.

The Eagles have been decimated by injuries already this season and in the win over the 49ers were without eight starters. They have two WR’s that will be out for the Pittsburgh game and three that are questionable.

Even in the win over the 49ers lead RB Miles Sanders only rushed for 46 yards averaging 3.5 yards per carry while rushing for at least 95 yards in his previous two games.

The Eagles’ defense has not played well either, as in the 49ers game were facing their backup QB. The only legit offense they have faced is the L.A. Rams and in that loss they gave up 37 points.

A Couple of Good Things Going

While the Steelers have played three bad teams they are undefeated, Ben Roethlisberger has stayed healthy, and the team ranks eighth in the league averaging 139.7 rushing yards per game.

Big Ben only has 777 yards through three games but has seven TD and only one INT. His line has protected him pretty well and Pittsburgh has four players with at least 113 receiving yards led by JuJu Smith-Schuster (160 yards).

The run game has been legit behind James Conner (224 yards 5.6 yards per carry) and Benny Snell Jr. (129 yards 4.4 yards per carry. Snell Jr’s has two fumbles and needs to hold onto the rock and he and Conner will face a Philly run D that gave up 116 yards in the win over San Fran.

Jason’s Prediction

The Eagles are only 1-4 ATS in their last four games while the Steelers have covered in five of their last seven home games.

This one is a tough call. Are the Eagles back? Is Big Ben back? Are the Steelers 3-0 just because of their schedule? I think the Steelers will get the W in this game but Wenz will find a way to keep it close. The run game for Pittsburgh will be the key to them winning but the Eagles will cover getting seven points in a low-scoring and close affair.

PICK: Eagles +7


Bettorsworld’s Pick

We agree with Jason here. While our model has this a 7 point game, a quick look at the yards per point numbers for both teams suggest neither is a juggernaut.

Phil 15.2   13.2

Pitt 14.3   15

The first number is the offensive number. The 2nd is the defensive number. The higher the number on defense, the better and more efficient the defense is. The opposite holds true for the offense.

You can see, the Steelers numbers are better, but not by much and not by a TD.

Eagles +7

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