Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears  – Week 4 NFL Pick – 10/4/20

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Indianapolis Colts (2-1 2-1 ATS) at Chicago Bears  (3-0 3-0 ATS)

In the Windy City in a non-conference matchup the Chicago Bears, who have QB issues, face an Indianapolis Colts team that has won two games in a row. Even at home and undefeated the Bears are a 2.5-point underdog with the total sitting at 45.

While both of the Colts wins have been at home and the Bears are unbeaten the public has been backing the Indy, as they opened as a 1-point favorite and as of Tuesday are favored by 2.5 points.

It is Nick Foles’ time in Chicago, as he took over and lead the team to a 30-26 comeback win over the Atlanta Falcons in the last game and has been named the starter against the Colts.

While Chicago is off to a good start they have already switched QB’s and the three teams they beat have a grand total of one win.

The Colts are coming off a 36-7 blowout win over the New York Jets, but they lost their only road game, against the Jaguars no less. Just like the Bears, their three wins have come facing teams that have one combined win.

These teams have not met since the 2016 season.

The Indianapolis defense leads the league in points against and in their last two games has only given up 18 points.

Less Yards, More Wins

Phillip Rivers may be making his swan song in Indy and in the last two games he has not passed for many yards but has two TD and one INT. In the season-opening game he was picked off twice while passing for 363 yards and in the win over the Jets he was 17/21 for 217 yards with one TD and no INT.

Indy rushed for 119 yards in the win over the Jets with rookie Jonathan Taylor leading the way with 59 rushing yards. He has filled in well after Marlon Mack was lost for the season and will face a Bears’ D that was lit up for 144 rushing yards in their last game.

T.Y Hilton led the Colts with 52 receiving yards in the blowout win over New York and TE Mo Alie-Cox leads the team early on with 181 receiving yards.

The Colts have six INT and five sacks in their last two games.

Its Foles’ Time, Again 

Former Super Bowl MVP was given the reigns after the Bears went down big in their last game and led the team to a huge comeback. Chicago came back and outscored the Flacons 20-0 in the fourth quarter with Foles passing for 188 yards and three TD after getting picked off on his first drive.

In the Atlanta game, Mitchell Trubisky was benched and he tied for the team lead in rushing yards with David Montgomery, who each had 45 yards. Montgomery was solid in the first two games but only averaged 3.2 yards per carry in the Atlanta win.

Allen Robinson went big in the Falcons win with 123 receiving yards in the last game after having 33 in the previous game. Chicago does not have the best WR corps and while much of the focus will be on Foles the Bears are led by a run game that ranks 11th in the league in rushing yards per game.

Our Prediction

The Colts are 0-1 on the road this season and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games. Conversely, the Bears have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games at Soldier Field.

Tough call in this one with Foles taking over and each team playing a less than tough schedule early on. I think the Colts are the better team and they have a great offensive line only allowing two sacks this season protecting a less than nimble Rivers. Still, at home and with Foles under center I think he will pull out some magic again and the Bears will, at least, cover the spread.

 PICK: Bears +2.5

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