Steelers vs. Ravens – Week 8 NFL Free Pick ATS – 11/1/20

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Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0 5-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1 3-3 ATS)

The Steelers are the last undefeated team in the league, and they have a key AFC North matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, who are sitting at 5-1. The Ravens are a 3.5-point home betting favorite in this big division game with the total at 46.5.

There has been a lot of betting action on this game, as when it opened the total was 49 and as of Tuesday is 46.5 and the public has backed the Steelers, as they opened as a 6-point underdog and are now a 3.5-point dog.

This is the first game between these teams this season and last season the Ravens won both games.

No surprise Pittsburgh is unbeaten, as they are balanced ranking fifth in the league in both scoring defense (19.7 ppg) and ppg (30.5 ppg). They are coming off a thrilling 27-24 win over the Tennessee Titans where Tennessee missed a late field goal that would have sent the game to OT.

The Ravens have won three in a row since their lone loss. In their last game, like the Steelers, they avoided a late comeback from the Philadelphia Eagles, who they beat 30-28.

Baltimore leads the NFL only giving up an average of 17.3 ppg. Their offense has been solid led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and a rushing offense that ranks third in the league.

While the Steelers are only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games facing the Ravens the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Holding On

In their win over the Titans in their last game the Steelers were up 27-7 in the third quarter and were outscored 17-0 the rest of the game but held on for the W. They outgained Tennessee 362 yards to 292 yards and only gave up 82 yards bottling up the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry.

Ben Roethlisberger passed for 268 yards with two TD in the loss to the Titans but was picked off three times. He had six TD and no picks in his previous three games and while Pittsburgh is undefeated Big Ben only ranks 23rd in the league in QBR.

In the Tennessee win, James Conner rushed for 82 yards and three players had at least 50 receiving yards led by JuJu Smith-Schuster (85 yards).

The Ravens lead the league in scoring defense, but they did give up 28 points in their last game and also gave up 194 rushing yards.

Holding On II

In their 30-28 win over the Eagles in their last game, the Ravens were outscored 22-6 and were fortunate with some Philly WR drops in holding on for the win.

The Ravens were outgained in the win over the Eagles (355 yards 364 yards) but forced the game’s only turnover and rushed for 182 yards. Lamar Jackson was most of the offense in the game passing for 186 yards with a TD and no INT and also led the team with 109 rushing yards and a TD.

Jackson leads the team in rushing (346 yards) and Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have combined for 443 rushing yards.

The big matchup in this game may be Jackson and the Baltimore run game facing the Steelers’ run defense, which ranks second in the league.

Prediction

The Steelers have covered the spread in their last four games while the Ravens have failed to cover in 12 of their last 17 games as a home favorite.

The Steelers have been impressive on the season but something tells me the Baltimore D will and Jackson will get it done. This game will be close and a grind-out game but Jackson will make some big plays, the Ravens will win and cover, and the Steelers will suffer their first loss of the season.

 PICK: Ravens -4