Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos – Week 4 NFL Pick ATS – 10/3/21

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The Ravens have won two in a row in close fashion and head to Mile High City to take on the 3-0 Broncos in an AFC encounter.

The Broncos are a 1-point betting favorite with the total sitting at 45 and as of Thursday the spread and the line have not changed since opening.

After Week 3 the Ravens are 2-1 and 1-2 ATS and the Broncos are 3-0 and 3-0 ATS.

In their last game the Ravens narrowly beat the winless Detroit Lions 19-17 where Justin Tucker nailed a record-setting 66-yard field goals as time expired. The team had 100 more overall yards than Detroit but they were not clicking on offense only s coring one TD.

The Broncos remained undefeated in their last game beating the hapless New York Jets 24-0. While the team is 3-0 and there is a lot of hype in Denver their three opponents are a combined 0-9. Still, any win is a good one and they are tied with the Las Vegas atop the AFC West.

These teams have not met since the 2018 season. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games between these teams.

Clutch, Clutch, Clutch

The Ravens did not look great in their win against the Lions but they did come through in the clutch. Not only did Tucker set the new NFL record for the longest field goal, which bounced off the crossbar, but to set it up Lamar Jackson converted a first down on fourth and 19.

The Ravens are the top rushing team in the league despite losing their top two RBs to season ending injuries in the preseason. Jackson has passed for 761 yards with three TD and three INT and as a QB ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. He has a back injury and is listed as questionable and I am sure the Broncos would like to see him on the sidelines. If he cannot go rookie Tyler Huntley will get the call.

Ty’Son Williams has rushed for 164 yards and Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown have combined for 443 receiving yards.

While Denver has played weak teams their D has killed it leading the league only giving up an average of 8.7 ppg. The team has eight sacks and Von Miller looks like the Miller of old with four of them.

Finally, a Test

The Broncos will finally face a good team after facing the Jaguars, Giants, and Jets in their first three games.

The defense has been awesome and the offense has been pretty solid as well ranking eighth in the league in rushing yards per game and 12th in passing yards per game.

Teddy Bridgewater has played well with 827 passing yards with four TD and he has not been picked off. He ranks third in the league in QBR and had two TD in his first two games but none in the last one. Courtland Sutton leads the team with 210 receiving yards and Melvin Gordan II has rushed for 192 yards averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

Denver has a good offensive line and opening up holes for Gordan II will be key in this game, as if the Broncos cannot run they will be in trouble.

Baltimore only has five sacks and their defense is giving up an average of 28.3 ppg.

The Prediction 

The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

I think Lamar Jackson will go but he will be careful and pass the ball more. The Broncos have played well on both sides of the ball but how good are they? They have faced three of the weakest teams in the league and if Jackson were 100%, I think they would get smoked. However, he still will likely play and while I do not see a blowout Baltimore will be the better team on both sides the ball and get the W.

PICK:  Ravens