Baltimore Ravens (12-5 11-6 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (14-3 11-6 ATS)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens got the playoff monkey of their back and hit the road to face the Bills, who won their first playoff game in 25 years last week. The Bills are a 2-point home favorite in this game with the total sitting at 50.
The public has slightly backed the Ravens in this game, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog and as of Tuesday are a 2-point dog.
Lamar Jackson finally played well in the playoffs in his third try last week with the Ravens beating the Titans 20-13. Jackson played well but it was the Baltimore defense that came up huge and you can bet that D will be tested by a Buffalo offense that ra ranked second in the league averaging 31.3 ppg.
While the Bills beat the Indianapolis Colts 27-24 Josh Allen was lucky to avoid a couple of key turnovers, especially his o-line pouncing on a fumble late. Still, the legit MVP candidate was awesome this season but will the big stage be too much pressure for the third year player?
With this game in Buffalo there will be around 6,700 fans in the stands. In the win over Indy that was big as those fans sounded more like 67,000.
These teams met last season in Buffalo where the Ravens beat the Bills 24-17.
The home team has covered the spread in six of the last eight games between these teams.
Defense Kills It
In the 20-13 win over Tennessee the Ravens outgained them 401 yards to 209 yards and stuffed the run. They held Derrick Henry, who led the league with over 2,000 yards, to only 40 yards on 18 carries. On top of that their pass D was legit holding Ryan Tannehill to 165 passing yards with a TD and a pick.
While Jackson was picked in the Titans game and did not pass for a TD he did pass for 179 yards and rushed for 136 yards including a 48-yard scoring run.
Jackson also has J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the backfield and in the Tennessee game the Ravens tore up the ground game rushing for 236 yards.
One massive concern Buffalo is their run defense, which gave up 163 yards in the win over the Colts. They allowed Indy to rush for 5.4 yards per carry and in this game facing a Ravens’ team that averaged 6.7 yards per attempt in the win over Tennessee.
Young Gun Comes Through
While Allen avoided some big turnovers in the last game he still came through, big time, passing for 324 yards with two TD and no INT and also led the Bills with 54 rushing yards.
Star WR Stefon Diggs had six catches for 128 yards with a TD in the win over the Colts and has at least 128 receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Allen has Diggs and other weapons in the passing game but how about the run game? Allen led the team in rushing last week but in that game they lost RB Zach Moss for the season. Devin Singletary I the lead RB but has failed to rush for over 36 yards over his last three games.
Allen and the Bills’ offense has to click, as the lower-scoring this game is the more it favors the Ravens.
Prediction
The Ravens have covered the spread in their last seven road playoff games. The Bills had covered the spread in eight straight games before failing to do so last week in the win over the Colts where they failed to cover as a 7-point favorite.
Lamar Jackson finally played well in a playoff game with the Ravens winning last week. I think he and the Ravens’ D will play well but they will not totally stuff the dynamic Buffalo offense. This game will be very close and even on the road I am taking Baltimore to not only cover but to win and advance to the AFC title game.
PICK: Ravens +2