L.A. Rams (11-6 10-7 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (13-3 10-6 ATS)
The Rams pulled off a big road upset of the Seahawks in the Wild Card round and can they do the same in Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers? The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game with a total of 45.5.
The public has backed the Rams in this NFC playoff game, as the Rams opened as a 7-point underdog and as of Tuesday are a 6.5-point dog.
The Rams overcame losing their QB and going back to their injured starter in their last game upsetting the Seahawks beating them 30-20. After John Wofford was knocked out with an injury Jared Goff came back in just 12 days after thumb surgery to lead L.A. to a win.
The Packers had a bye last week as the NFC’s top seed in the post-season and they enter this game winning their last six games. The team has likely MVP Aaron Rodgers under center and their defense only gave up an average of 18.5 ppg in their end-of-the-season six-game win streak.
L.A. has the top-ranked defense in the league and shut down Russell Wilson. However, it is a tall-task shutting down Rodgers and a Green Bay offense that led the NFL this season averaging 31.8 ppg.
The Packers have covered the spread in their last six games facing the Rams.
Can the Rams’ D Come Through Again?
While the Rams’ offense obviously has to score to win their D is much more important in this game. In their win over the Seahawks the L.A. D forced two turnovers, held Seattle to 2-14 on third down conversions, and had five sacks. They held Russell Wilson to 11-27 for only 174 yards with two TD and an INT.
Likely Defensive Player of the Year, for the third straight season, Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd had four of the five sacks in the win over Seattle and they must pressure Rodgers.
Goff came in last week and passed for 155 yards with a TD and no INT and he got a lot of help from rookie RM Cam Akers, who rushed for 131 yards.
The Green Bay defense has not given up more than 16 points in any of their last three games. If Rodgers and company cannot be contained L.A. is in for a long day, as if they get into a shootout the Packers have a huge advantage with all the weapons they have.
The Pressure is On
Rodgers had a great season (4,299 yards 48 TD 5 TD) ranking first in the league in QBR. He will likley win the MVP again but there is still a lot of pressure on him since the all-time great “only” has one Super Bowl ring.
Aaron Jones rushed for 1,104 yards and Davante Adams was recently named to the All Pro team. Both can make big plays and the Rans have to avoid letting that happen. Easier said than done.
In the last two games the Packers outscored their opponents 75-30 and that was facing two teams that made the playoffs.
Prediction
The Rams are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games. However, they are at Lambeau and the Packers have covered the spread in four of their last five home playoff games.
Killer matchup in this game with the best offense in the league taking on the best defense. While defense does win in the playoffs that will not be the case in this game.
Rodgers is on a mission and he will get it done even facing a great Rams’ D. I do not see Green Bay blowing out L.A. but I see them winning by at least a TD. The Packers will win and cover and cover the spread and advance to the NFC title game for the second straight season.
PICK: Packers -6.5