Bears vs. Packers – Week 14 NFL Pick

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The reeling Bears have one win in their last seven games, against the Lions no less, and head to the Frozen Tundra to face a Packers’ team that has won two of their last three games.

The Packers are a big 12.5-point favorite in this division matchup with the total sitting at 43. With such a big spread the public has been wary of the Packers and has thrown their money on the Bears, as they opened as a 13.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 12.5-point dog.

After Week 13 the Bears are 4-8 and 4-8 ATS and the Packers are 9-3 and 10-2 ATS.

In their last game the Bears were at home and lost to the Arizona Cardinals 33-22. Chicago outgained Arizona 329 yards to 257 yards but allowed Kyler Murray to pass for two TD and rush for two more and they committed four turnovers while forcing none.

The Packers were at home in their last game in a possible playoff matchup and beat the L.A. Rams 36-28. The game was not as close as the score indicated and Green Bay ranked up nearly 400 yards and forced three turnovers while only committing one.

The teams met in the Windy City in Week 5 where the Packers beat the Bears 24-14. The Packers have covered the spread in four of their last five home games against the Bears.

The Rookie is Back

Justin Fields has missed the last two games due to injury but is healthy and will start in this game. He was under center in the Bears loss earlier this season to the Packers and passed for 174 yards with a TD and an INT and rushed for 43 yards.

David Montgomery (566 yards 4 TD) rushed for 90 yards against the Cardinals in the last game and he is questionable to face the Packers. Rookie Khalil Herbert will get the reps if Montgomery cannot go but since his return from IR Herbert has not done much with 38 yards on 13 carries in the last four games.

Chicago ranks dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game. Darnell Mooney (721 yards 3 TD) is the only player with over 402 receiving yards and after two games of at least 121 receiving yards he only had 27 on seven targets in the loss to the Cardinals.

The Green Bay defense has been up and down as of late and on the season ranks ninth in the NFL against the pass and eighth against the run.

Keeping Pace with the Cardinals

The Packers are one game back of the Cardinals in the NFC and look to keep pace with them with a win, as they hold the tiebreaker with Arizona already beating them this season.

Aaron Rodgers may battle Tom Brady for the MVP trophy this season and in the last two games has passed for over 300 in each one with six TD and no INT. He has a toe injury but has still been dropping dimes and has only been sacked five times in the last four games.

Star WR Davante Adams ranks third in the NFL with 1,083 receiving yards and he has over 100 yards in each of the last two games.

Aaron Jones has not put-up big numbers as of late but is a threat to run the ball and catch it out of the backfield and is getting healthy at the right time.

Chicago ranks a legit sixth in the NFL in pass defense but only 23rd in run defense.

The Prediction 

The Packers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games facing the Bears and 4-1 ATS in their last four games against them at home.

In the game against the Bears in Chicago this season Rodgers scored on a running TD and yelled at the fans “I own the Bears.” Well, for one he is right and second, he will continue to do so. He will have a solid game and the team will run the ball well and play good D against a weak Chicago offensive team. This game may get ugly quick, as the Packers will easily win and cover despite giving 12.5 points to their division rival.

PICK:  Packers -12.5