Buccaneers vs. Saints – Week 8 NFL Pick – 10/31/21

bucs vs. saints nfl pick ats
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The Saints have won two in a row and in a huge game for them play host to a Bucs team that is atop the NFC South and has won their last four games.

The Bucs are a 5.5-point road favorite in the Big Easy in this game with the total sitting at 50. The public has really laid a lot of dough on Tampa Bay, as they opened as a 4-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 5.5-point favorite.

After Week 7 the Bucs are 6-1 and 3-4 ATS and the Saints are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS.

In their last game the Bucs were at home and they had no problem in a 38-3 blowout win over the Chicago Bears. Tom Brady tossed his 600th TD in the easy win where Tampa forced five turnovers and rushed for 182 yards.

The Saints were on the road in their last game on Monday night and beat the Seattle Seahawks 13-10 in a defensive slugfest. New Orleans took advantage of the Seattle mistakes and their defense killed it holding them to only 219 total yards.

This is the first matchup between these division rivals this season and last season the Saints beat the Bucs twice. The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last six games facing the Bucs.

Bucs Hammered Bears Early

The Bucs did not have a ton of yards in the win over the Bears but they put the game away early outscoring them 35-3 in the first half. The team easily won even though Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski were out sidelined by injuries.

Brady has to be just behind Kyler Murry in the MVP race and the GOAT leads the NFL in passing yards and he has 11 TD and only one INT in the last three games.

Leonard Fournette (413 yards 4 TD) has been a big reason for the Bucs success and he has rushed for 81 yards in each of the last two games.

Even with Brown doubtful and Gronk questionable Brady has not lack of targets with the likes of Chris Goodwin and Mike Evans, who each have at least 496 receiving yards.

While the Saints have a great run defense their pass defense only ranks 20th in the league, which is a major issue with Brady coming to town.

Big Time Test for Saints

This game will be a big test for the Saints and since a surprising win over the Packers in the opener the last three wins for the team have come against sub .500 teams.

The defense has been the strength of the team ranking third in the NFL only giving up an average of 16.8 ppg.

Jameis Winston (1,114 yards 13 TD 3 TD) has not put up big numbers and New Orleans ranks second to last in the NFL in passing yards per game but he has limited his turnovers and ranks 14th in the league in QBR. In his last four games he has eight TD and had only been picked off once.

Alvin Kamara has been the key player on offense, as while he is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and struggled in the last game, he ranks second on the team with 241 receiving yards.

Marquez Callaway leads the team with 254 receiving yards and second leading WR Deonte Harris (236 yards) is questionable for this game and missed the last one.

This game is not a good matchup for the Saints since their strength on offense is running the ball. They will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that ranks first in the league in run defense but only 23rd in pass defense.

The Prediction 

While the Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite I do not see that trend continuing.

The Bucs will not let their foot off the gas in this game, as with a win they can really take control of the NFC South. Brady will be Brady and the run defense will keep Kamara from having a good game. Even with a banged up secondary I do not see Winston lighting it up. The Bucs will get the win and cover the spread and extend their winning streak to five games.

PICK:  Buccaneers -5.5