Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills – Week 17 NFL Pick – 1/3/21

dolphins vs bills pick
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Miami Dolphins (6-9 5-10 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (5-10 8-7 ATS)

In the season finale, the Dolphins head north to face the Bills in an AFC matchup. The Bills are a slight 1-point favorite in this game with the total sitting at 44.5.

The Bills may rest some key players since they will either be the #2 or #3 seed in the post-season and host a first-round playoff game. That I the main reason public money has been on the Dolphins, as they opened as a 5.5 point underdog and as of Wednesday are only a 1-point dog.

The Dolphins are coming off a miracle win where after losing the lead they marched down the field to kick a game-winning field goal in the 26-25 win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Dolphins are in the playoff hunt and if they win this game they are in. However, they can also get in if they lose and one of the teams of the Ravens Colts, and Browns lose.

The Bills have won five in a row and Josh Allen has emerged as an MVP candidate. Not only has Buffalo win five straight but they won each game by double figures and laid a 38-9 beat down on the Patriots in their last game.

In the second game of the season in the Sunshine State, the Bills beat the Dolphins 31-28 in a barnburner.

The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against the Dolphins.

Fitz-Magic, Again

In the huge win over the Raiders in the last game backup Ryan Fitzpatrick got the call in the fourth quarter and came up big with a 44-yard heave with seconds left to put the team in field goal range. He passed for 182 yards with a TD and no INT and was not sacked.

Tua Tagovailoa was benched in the fourth quarter of the win over the Raiders but remains the starter and will get the call in the Bills game, He was 17-22 with a TD and no INT in the Las Vegas game but only passed for 94 yards. Miami head coach Brian Flores stated, “We just felt like we needed a spark, trying to win the game.”

Myles Gaskin has given the Dolphins a boost at the end of the season, as he has rushed for at least 87 yards in three of his last four games.

Miami will not only be facing Allen and a Buffalo offense that ranks fourth in the league in ppg but also a solid defense that has only given up an average of 16.8 ppg over their last five games.

Will They Play?

The Bills have not made any announcements yet but will their star players play? They have the second or third seed locked up and have the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh for one of those seeds and Ben Roethlisberger is not playing in the Steelers game.

Allen has passed for over 4,000 yards with 34 TD and 9 INT and has also rushed for 473 yards with 4 TD. He has the weapons and leading WR Stefon Diggs (1,459 yards 8 TD) is the reigning AFC player of the week after going for 145 receiving yards and three TD in the last game.

Buffalo leading rusher Devin Singletary has been up and down as of late and rushed for 36 yards averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the last game.

Miami ranks in the middle of the pack on defense and needless to say they need to play better than they did in the early loss to the Bills where they gave up 523 yards.


 The Dolphins have covered the spread in five of their last six games facing a team with a winning record. On the other side of the coin, the Bills have covered in their last seven games overall,

I think the Bills will sit some of their key players including Allen. Their playoff spot is pretty much set and in cold north New York I think they will not chance those key players., The Dolphins will be hungry and I look for Tua to have a good game. Miami will get the W in this one and make the playoffs in the process.

PICK: Miami +1