New England Patriots at New York Jets
The Patriots and Jets each lost their season opener and loser of this game will be behind the 8-ball early at 0-2 on the young season.
The Patriots are a 6-point road favorite in this game with the total sitting at 43. The public has really backed the Pats so far in this AFC East matchup, as they opened as a 3.5-point favorite and as of Tuesday are a 5.5-point favorite.
After Week 1 the Pats are 0-1 and 0-1 ATS and the Jets are 0-1 and 0-1 ATS.
The Patriots lost to the Miami Dolphins 17-16 in their opener where they outgained them by 134 yards and defended the run well but had a costly late turnover. Mac Jones had a pretty solid rookie debut but only led the team to 16 points.
In the Jets first game of the season, they were on the road and lost to the Carolina Panthers 19-14. The team only had 252 yards and only rushed for 45 yards. Zack Wilson also made his rookie debut and while he passed for 258 yards with two TD he was picked off once and sacked six times.
Last season the Pats beat the Jets twice but they have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games facing them in New York.
Hold Onto the Rock
In the Pats loss to the Dolphins in the opener they fumbled the ball four times losing it twice. The costly fumble in the fourth quarter was when New England was on the Miami 11-yard line and after the turnover the Dolphins were able to run out the clock.
Damien Harris was the player that lost the ball late in the game but he did rush for 100 yards averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Jones look good spreading the rock around, as Nelson Agholor led the team with 77 receiving yards and James White, Jakobi Meyers, and Jonnu Smith each had at least 42 receiving yards.
The Jets’ defense gave up 381 yards in the loss to Carolina and allowed Christian McCaffery to pile up 187 yards from scrimmage. That is a concern with the versatile White for the Pats, who is a solid pass-catching RB. The Jets only had one sack and they will be facing a solid New England offensive line that only gave up one sack in their last game.
A Lot to Ask of a Rookie
Wilson had a pretty good debut but he got little help from the run game and was sacked six times.
Tevin Coleman led the Jets with only 24 rushing yards on a paltry average of 2.7 yards per carry. The run game needs to help out their rookie QB but that is easier said than done facing a New England defense that only gave up 72 rushing yards in their loss to the Dolphins.
Corey Davis had a solid debut for the Jets leading the team with 97 receiving yards and he had both of the TDs.
The protection for Wilson was bad in the loss to the Panthers and this Sunday will face a Pats’ D that had two sacks in the Miami game.
The Jets need to establish the run more and get off to a better start than last week when they were outscored 16-0 in the first half. They cannot get down big again and hope Wilson bails them out.
The Prediction
The Patriots have failed to cover in four of their last five games and are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Still, do not look for those trends to continue. While on the road they are still playing the Jets, who have many issues. Look for the New England defense to play well in this game, Jones will have a decent game, and the team will not cough up the rock multiple times. I do not see a blowout in this one, as Wilson will keep them in the game but the Patriots will get the division win and cover the spread.