NFL Pick – Denver Broncos at New York Giants – Week 1 – 9/12/21

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broncos at giants pick
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Denver Broncos at New York Giants

The Broncos head to the Big Apple with a new QB under center while the Giants have Daniel Jones, who may be in his last season as a starter if he does not produce.

The Broncos are a 3-point road favorite with the total sitting at 42. The public has really backed the Broncos in this game, as they only opened favorited by a point but now at three points as of September 8.

Last season the Broncos were 5-11 and 9-7 ATS and the Giants were 6-10 and 9-7 ATS.

Denver enters the season with Teddy Bridgewater as the starter beating out Drew Lock, who had a terrible sophomore slump last season. Denver’s defense struggled last season with many injured players on that side of the ball but they are healthy and the team also made some solid off-season moves to shore up the D.

Daniel Jones is in his third season as a starter and he has no excuses this season with the weapons he has on the outside and the return of star RB Saquon Barkley. He has to cut down on his turnovers and in his two seasons has 29 fumbles. New York ranked second to last in the NFL last season in points scored but a legit ninth in points allowed.

While the Broncos have covered the spread in four of their last five games facing the Giants they have not played them since the 2017 season.

Bridge Looks to Stay

Bridgewater is on his third team in four seasons and last season with the Carolina Panthers he had nine starts and passed for 10 TD and eight INT. Pro Bowler Courtland Sutton is coming back from missing all but one game last season with an injury and while last season’s first round pick Jerry Jeudy led the team with 856 receiving yards, he also led the NFL in drops.

Melvin Gordan III leads the backfield and he came on strong at the end of the last season where he rushed for 986 yards. He will share time in the backfield with rookie Javonte Williams, who may have been a steal in the second round.

While the Giants lost defensive captain DT Dalvin Tomlinson, they still should be solid this season. The pass rush is led by Leonard Williams (11.5 sacks) and the team used their second-round pick to take edge rusher Azeez Ojulari, who many had as a first round pick. star CB James Bradberry leads the athletic secondary and CB Adoree’ Jackson was a great pickup.

Jones Has a Lot to Work With

Last season Jones passed for nearly 3,000 yards with 11 TD and 10 INT and ranked 20th in the league in QBR. Barkley went down early and he had to carry the load, which he could not do. Barkey is back and healthy are tearing up his knee in Week 2 last season and New York may have a great WR corps.

WR’s Darius Slayton (751 receiving yards) and Sterling Shepard (656 receiving yards) are both back in the fold and the team went out and signed playmaker Kenny Gollady, who only played five games, John Ross III, and drafted Kadarius Toney in the first round. On top of that the G-Men also have Pro Bowl TE Evan Engram (654 receiving yards).

The offensive line was a big issue last season but may be better this season with Nate Solder returning after option out of last season and 2020 first-round pick Andrew Thomas healthy.

Denver’s D was hit only ranking 25th in the league in points allowed. However, they brought in the CB duo of Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller, took B Patrick Surtain II with the ninth pick in the draft, and brought back longtime star Von Miller, who missed all of last season.

The Prediction 

The Broncos are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite while the Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

I hate to say this as a Washington fan but I think Jones will play well in this opener and the offense will be impressive. The team has Barkley back and some new weapons on the outside to go along with a defense that was a good one last season. The Broncos have some playmakers on offense but Bridgewater is not a QB that can light it up and last season the team only ranked 28th in points scored. Going against the public in this one, as I not only think the Giants will win this opener but get the W as well.

PICK:  Giants -3