Patriots vs. Bills – Week 13 NFL MNF Pick – 12/6/21

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Big Monday night action in Buffalo where first place in the AFC East is at stake with the Bills hosting the red-hot Patriots.

The Bills are a 2.5-point home favorite in this division matchup with a total of 42.5. Not only has the total gone down 2.5 points since opening but the public has backed New England, as they opened as a 3-point underdog and as of Friday are a 2.5-point underdog.

After Week 12 the Patriots are 8-4 and 8-4 ATS and the Chiefs are 7-4 and 6-4-1 ATS.

In their last game the Patriots won their sixth in a row with an impressive 36-13 home win over the Tennessee Titans. While the Pats were torched on the ground giving up 270 rushing yards they forced four turnovers, had a balanced offensive attack, and outscored the Titans 20-0 in the second half.

The Bills have been flipping wins and losses in the last few games and after being throttled by the Colts 41-15 they were on the road in their last game and crushed the New Orleans Saints 31-6. Josh Allen had four TD in the game and the Buffalo defense held the Saints to only 190 total yards.

This is the first game of the season between these teams and they meet in a couple of weeks in New England. The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games facing the Pats.

Defense Has Killed It

In the Pats six-game win streak their defense has really stepped up giving up an average of 10.5 ppg and in their last four games have given up a grand total of 26 points.

Mac Jones (2,850 yards 16 TD 8 INT) has seven TD and two INT in the last four games and he passed for a season high 310 yards in the last game.

While not having the big-name WR corps the Pats have three that have at least 416 receiving yards led by Kendrick Bourne (623 yards 5 TD).

Damien Harris leads New England with 643 rushing yards and 8 TD and he has been steady but has not rushed for over 56 yards in any of the last three games.

Jones and company will be facing a Buffalo defense that ranks second in the NFL against the pass and sixth against the run.

A Win is Needed

The Bills are a game back of the Pats in the AFC East and need a win in this game to tie them for the division lead and that is especially the case since they face a guy named Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on the road in their next game.

While the Bills are 7-4, they have been inconsistent as of late and look to build on their whooping of the Saints in their last game.

Josh Allen (3,701 yards 25 TD 10 INT) did have four TD passes in the last game, but also had two INT and in the last four games he has seven picks. He has a legit WR corps led by Stefon Diggs (847 yards 7 TD) but will be facing a New England pass D that ranks third in the league.

The Pats only rank 20th in the league defending the run and they were torched in their last game on the ground but can the Bills take advantage of that? While the team ranks 11th in the NFL in rushing yards per game lead RB Devin Singletary (459 yards 2 TD) has not rushed for over 44 yards in his last seven games and the team has been relying on Josh Allen to carry the offense.

The Prediction 

Not only have the Pats won their last six games but they have covered in all six as well. Even on the road that trend will continue in this game.

New England is on fire and they have played great defense as of late and Mac Jones has limited his mistakes and the run game has been there. They will not light up Buffalo but move the ball and their defense will keep Allen from tearing them up. This game will be close and the Bills may get the win, I do not think they will, but the Pats will put up a fight in northern New York and they will, at least, cover the spread.

PICK:  Patriots +2.5